Wednesday NBA Player Props: Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox & Saddiq Bey Among Top Picks (March 9)

Wednesday NBA Player Props: Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox & Saddiq Bey Among Top Picks (March 9) article feature image

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell

  • With an NBA slate as loaded as the one we have tonight, it's only fitting that our bets on player prop are just as stacked.
  • Brandon Anderson has eight prop picks across Wednesday's 12 games, including three scoring overs.
  • Check out his analysis and bets below.

We're almost exactly one month away from the NBA playoffs.

Every game has postseason relevance now as teams fight for seeding, and we're upping the ante with a huge slate ahead. I've got a whopping eight props on Wednesday night's slate, plus a few alternates if you really want to get wild.

We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, you'll find the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props

Saddiq Bey Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)

Bulls at PistonsBulls -5.5
Time7 p.m. ET
Best BookDraftKings

Are the Pistons … good now?

Detroit has won six of its last eight games after a 12-45 start — never mind that those six wins have come by a total of just 15 points, two of them in overtime and all against East opponents. The Pistons are back, baby!

Saddiq Bey has been a big part of Detroit's recent surge. His scoring and rebounding numbers are both up. Over the last 11 games, he's averaging 18.7 points and 6.0 assists. That's 24.7 points + rebounds, well above this line, and he's been crushing this prop during this stretch going over it in nine of those 11 (82% hit rate).

Bey is even hotter lately at 26.6 points + rebounds over the last five, but this promising run stretches back even further. He's gone over 21.5 PR in 14 of his last 19, and he missed by only one in another game. Heck, he's passed this number on points alone in five of the last 10 games!

The Bulls are a tough matchup, and Bey will have his hands full against DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine on the wing. But that should also mean all the minutes Bey can handle, and it's not like either of those two is a big threat to shut him down on defense.

We project Bey to go over his points (16.5) and rebounds (5.5) line, so I'll play them together to -135.

Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points (+215)

Trail Blazers at JazzJazz -18
Time10 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

The Jazz are monster favorites against the Blazers. That line could approach 20 points by tip-off, which makes any Jazz over scary since it could mean limited minutes in a potential blowout.

But the Jazz rarely blow teams out without a big game from Donovan Mitchell. And that's why we're playing a more aggressive angle here.

Mitchell's typical over/under for points sits at 24.5, and you can play that at even odds at DraftKings if you prefer. But when Spida has a good scoring game, it's usually a great one — and it doesn't really matter how few points he has if he goes under.

Mitchell has made a superstar leap as this season has progressed. Over the first 20 Jazz games, he was scoring 22.3 points per game — a nice enough number, but nothing near what he's done since. Over his last 33 games, he's all the way up to 27.3 points per game, a full five points higher per night.

That's because he's frequently seeing big scoring outings.

During those 33 recent games, Mitchell has scored at least 30 points 15 times. That hits this alternate over 45% of the time, but we're getting it at +215 odds, which should imply under a 32% hit rate. The Blazers are one of the NBA's worst defenses ranking bottom five in points, 3-pointers and free throws allowed.

Let's hope Portland stays close long enough for Mitchell to take advantage.

De'Aaron Fox Over 24.5 Points (+100)

Nuggets at KingsNuggets -5
Time10 p.m. ET
Best BookDraftKings

Donovan Mitchell isn't the only young guard taking a serious leap out West. After a miserable start to his season, De'Aaron Fox is also making a massive leap as a scorer over the past few weeks.

It really was a rough start to the year for Fox. His scoring dropped to 21.0 points per game in 34.1 minutes, and his assist numbers were tumbling as the team appeared to be turning more and more of the offense over to Tyrese Haliburton. But everything changed when Haliburton and Buddy Hield were traded to Indiana for Domantas Sabonis, and Fox has thrived ever since.

Fox missed two weeks at the end of January and start of February with an injury, and he's been a different player since his return. For one, he's playing a massive minutes load as the Kings do all they can to push for the playoffs, at 38.2 minutes per game. He's also taken a huge leap as a scorer, up to 27.9 points per game over that stretch. He's gone over this line in 10 of those 12 games, an 83% hit rate, and one of those unders was by a single point.

This line has moved up over the last week, so there's not a ton of value left as it rises. And Fox has scored only 30 twice during this stretch, so I won't push my luck with any alternate overs. But at even odds, I still like this over since the line still feels a point or two too low, especially with the Nuggets in the bottom 10 defensively against point guards.

I'll play at any plus number or up to -120.

Bonus NBA Prop Bets

  • Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 Assists (-150) at PointsBet: Tatum is over this line in 16 of his last 20 games (80%). He's averaging 4.7 assists over his last 10 and 6.7 in three Hornets games this season, and Charlotte allows the most assists per game in the NBA.
  • LaMelo Ball Over 5.5 assists (-135) at DraftKings: Ball's assists have dropped some lately, but he's still at 7.3 assists per game on the season and over this line in 41-of-59 (69%) games. Boston allows the fewest assists in the league, but Ball has nine, 10, and nine dimes against them this season. It's ugly when he misses (10 games of three or fewer assists) but all we care about is the makes.
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  • Jerami Grant Under 4.5 rebounds (-145) at PointsBet: Grant has gone under this line in 13 of the last 14 games, hitting this under a whopping 93% of the time. He's averaging just 3.0 RPG during that stretch. The rebounds have dried up as this team evolves and shifts focus.
  • Dejounte Murray Over 1.5 steals (-150) at BetMGM: Toronto allows the second-fewest steals but is missing its guards, and Murray has multiple steals in 40-of-57 (70%) game — that includes 12 of the last 15 (80%) and his minutes are up with Derrick White gone. Since White's trade, he's also scoring 25.8 points per game. You can play 25+ points at +175 at PointsBet, too, if you like. He's done that in six of the nine games since the White trade.
  • Luka Doncic Over 2.5 threes (-145) at FanDuel: The shooting is back, at 39% on 3.6 3s per game over the last 20 and over this line in 13 of them (65%). Doncic has at least four in half of those games, and he's exploded even more since the Porzingis trade. You can play that at +182 or five-plus (six of his last 20) at +450.

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