Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will Julius Randle Grab 11 Rebounds?

The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two games:

• Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
• Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Pelicans PF Julius Randle

THE PICK: Under 10.5 Rebounds (-125)

Even with Anthony Davis downgraded to doubtful, this line is too high.

We shouldn't expect there to be many missed shots in a Pelicans-Hawks game in which the over/under is set at 242 — one of the highest marks of the past decade. (In case you're wondering, totals of 242 or higher have gone over at a 60% clip since 2008, per Bet Labs.)

According to our NBA On/Off tool, Randle is averaging 8.5 rebounds in 31.6 minutes per game sans Brow, which would still put him on pace to fall well short of 11 if he plays the 33.5 minutes our NBA Player Models have him projected at for tonight.

What's more, the increased load offensively has seemingly taken a toll on Randle's ability to exert effort on the glass: Prior to the All-Star break, he averaged 9.1 rebounds in 29.5 minutes while posting a 26.9% Usage Rate, but in 16 games since, he's pulling down only 6.8 rebounds in 33.5 minutes as his Usage Rate has ballooned to 29.5%.

Randle pulled down only three rebounds in 34.7 minutes against the Hawks on March 10 despite Brow playing under 22 minutes, and he's failed to eclipse eight rebounds in 10-of-16 (62.5%) games since the break, so this prop should have value down to under 8.5 at -167.

Kings SF Bogdan Bogdanovic

THE PICK: Under 14.5 Points (-125)

Bogdanovic is averaging 14.0 points in 27.6 minutes per game on the season, but just 9.4 points in 23.2 minutes since losing his spot in the starting five to Nemanja Bjelica seven games ago.

Over that span, Bogdan-squared has gone over 14.5 points just once, and he's also got negative road splits working against him, as he's averaging 1.7 fewer points on the road this season, mostly thanks to a drop in 3-point percentage from 37.1% to 30.7% outside the familiar confines of the Golden 1 Center.

The 26-year-old Serbian has managed to post 12 or more points in just 40% of his games since the All-Star break, so this should have value down to under 11.5 at -150.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there as well.