Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 10): Patrick Beverley Has a Solid Matchup
Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Beverley (21) of the LA Clippers.
- Friday's 10-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Knicks SG Reggie Bullock, Heat C Bam Adebayo, and Clippers PG Patrick Beverley.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 10 games:
- New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks: 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Knicks SG Reggie Bullock
THE PICK: Over 10.5 points (-110)
Bullock has started each of the past two games for the Knicks, and he has the potential to start his third straight game today vs. the Pelicans. Julius Randle, Dennis Smith Jr. and Marcus Morris are all out.
Bullock hasn’t exactly dominated in his past two starts— he’s scored nine and seven points — but he’s shot just 38.9% over that time frame. He should benefit from some positive regression moving forward.
The Pelicans also represent an excellent matchup. They rank sixth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Knicks are currently implied for 111.25 points. That represents a solid increase compared to their regular season average (104.2).
Bullock seems like a strong buy-low candidate today. I like the over up to -125.
Heat C Bam Adebayo
THE PICK: Over 10.5 rebounds (-130)
Adebayo has struggled as a rebounder recently, logging 10 boards or fewer in each of his past three games. That said, those haven’t exactly been great matchups, and he was limited to just 28.8 minutes in his last game.
He should have a much easier go of things today vs. the Nets. They’ve given up big rebound games in bunches this season, and Adebayo pulled down 16 boards vs. the Nets in their first matchup this season.
I like his chances of hitting the over today, but this prop is already juiced up a bit. I wouldn’t play it at much higher than -130.
Clippers PG Patrick Beverley
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (+100)
The Clippers will be without Paul George today, which opens up plenty of rebounding opportunities for the rest of the roster. Beverley has increased his rebound rate by +1.0% with George off the court this season, which is tied for the top mark on the team. That may not sound like a lot, but it increases his average to 8.4 rebounds per 36 minutes in that situation. The Warriors are also a strong matchup, ranking just 24th in team rebound rate.
This is a nice combination of matchup and injury situation. I would play the over up to -120.