NBA Player Props & Picks: Bets for Cam Johnson, Brook Lopez (May 15)
Via Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Cameron Johnson #23 of the Phoenix Suns puts up a three-point shot over Jalen Brunson #13 of the Dallas Mavericks.
- With two pivotal Game 7s on Sunday, our NBA props analyst has found two props worth tailing.
- He uses the Action Labs Player Prop tool to break down the most valuable plays.
- Check out Tyler Schmidt's best prop plays below.
This Sunday offers up two Game 7s which will be extremely exciting! Since there have been six games played in each series so far, the sportsbook lines are very accurate, making this tougher than normal. However, there are still a couple of player props that caught my attention, so let’s check them out.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Brook Lopez, Under 7.5 Points (-102)
|Celtics vs. Bucks||Celtics -5|
|Time | TV||3:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
This Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks series has been pretty wild. They have yo-yo’d each game so far as home court can be thrown out the window. The Bucks have already won twice on the Celtics’ home floor as they look to make it three tonight. In both wins, they were road underdogs by five or more points.
With what should be a battle between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum, the role players may be taking a back seat — Brook Lopez in particular. He has been very boom or bust the entire playoffs, which makes this risky, but he has been a liability in this series.
Lopez has been atrocious in playoff road games. During the playoffs on the road, he is averaging 4.2 points while shooting 38.5% from the field on only 26 total field goal attempts. This is a significant drop-off compared to averaging 15.2 points per game while shooting 53.1% from the field at home.
Lopez has failed to make a 3-pointer in this entire Celtics series, and he has six or fewer points in four of the six games. He had two very good games at home in Games 3 and 4 but has been missing in action the rest of the way, especially on the road. Bobby Portis has stepped up the most in the Bucks’ road games and taken Lopez’s minutes.
I would take this prop down to 6.5 points, but if you are concerned about Lopez reaching eight points, take his under points and assists prop, which is currently sitting at 8.5. Lopez has four games where he hasn’t even recorded one assist. Either way you play it, fade Lopez in this difficult road matchup.
Cam Johnson, Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
|Suns vs. Mavericks||Suns -6.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | TNT|
Unlike the first game, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have won all of their home games as each team has looked dominant playing at home. The Suns are sizable favorites as they have won each home game by an average of 19 points. The Mavericks came closest in Game 1, losing by only seven points.
Similar to Lopez, Cam Johnson has played much better at home compared to on the road. That is typical for role players in the league. Johnson is averaging 13.3 points, three rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game at home compared to 7.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game on the road. Play him at home.
Also while playing at home in this series, Johnson is shooting 58.3% from the field and can easily get over this prop on points alone. Our model has Johnson projected for 12.9 points and 18.4 total points, rebounds, and assists tonight, making this one of the best value props on the board. Johnson can get over with ease.
The Suns have been fully healthy this entire series, and Johnson is averaging 15 points, rebounds, and assists per game. He was well over this line during the regular season and in the first-round as well. This prop line is simply too low, even with a healthy Suns team where Johnson will come off the bench tonight.
This is another prop that I would consider an alternate line or even taking a different Johnson prop if there was better value. His points prop is only 8.5 points, and Johnson has scored over that in four of the six games in this series. I would also take his over points, rebounds, and assists prop up to 14.5 tonight.