NBA Player Props Today | 3 Picks for Jalen Duren, Jonathan Kuminga & Jusuf Nurkic (Wednesday, March 20)

NBA Player Props Today | 3 Picks for Jalen Duren, Jonathan Kuminga & Jusuf Nurkic (Wednesday, March 20) article feature image
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Pictured: Jonathan Kuminga #00 of the Golden State Warriors (left), Jusuf Nurkic #20 of the Phoenix Suns (center) and Jalen Duren #0 of the Detroit Pistons (right). Photos via Getty Images

Last night, we backed Jalen Green against the Wizards and he scored 42 points, cashing his points ladder in the process. Tonight I’ll be backing a different another Jalen as the Pistons host the Pacers.

The Rockets' win over the Wizards has made things even more interesting in the West. They are now just 2.5 games behind the Warriors for the 10th seed and final spot in the play-in tournament. However, the Warriors are favored at home over the Grizzlies tonight. Jonathan Kuminga will look to help them keep the Rockets at bay with a victory.

The Suns are a bit more stable at 3.5 games up on the Warriors and currently hold the eighth seed. However, they are also just a half game back of the Kings for sixth and could move depending on tonight’s results. Jusuf Nurkic will look to help them own the paint against the Sixers, who are looking to avoid the play-in tournament themselves in the East.

Let's dive into my top NBA player props for tonight's slate.


NBA Player Props for Wednesday, March 20

In the table below, you'll find each of my top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Time (ET)Player Prop
7 p.m.
10 p.m.
10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Wednesday, Mar 20
7 p.m. ET
BSDET

Jalen Duren

Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds

Jalen Duren will enter tonight's game with 38 double-doubles, which is the ninth-most in the NBA this season. He did not record a double-double in Monday's loss to the Celtics, but he entered the contest having recorded one in four straight games and in six of his previous seven.

Duren has gone consecutive games without a double-double just once this season. Given his consistency — including against the Pacers, who he has five consecutive double-doubles against — I am expecting him to get another double-double tonight.

However, simply backing Duren for a double-double does not offer much value with the best price being -200 on ESPN BET. Instead, I am pivoting to his points and rebounds combo given that is how he usually records them.  He has had 27 points and rebounds combined in three of his past five games.

Duren has also cleared this line in three of his last five games against the Pacers. Indiana has improved defensively of late, but still ranks just 19th in the league in defensive rating over the past 15 games. In that span, the Pacers are allowing 22.5 points and 16.5 rebounds (sixth-most) per game to centers.

Though Duren has five straight double-doubles against Indiana, he has actually played 30 minutes in just one of those games. That would be the last meeting in February when he went for 15 points and 13 rebounds. Duren is averaging nearly 30 (29.7) minutes per game this season.

If he stays out of foul trouble, I like his chances of getting 27 points and rebounds in this matchup.

Pick: Duren Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)

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Wednesday, Mar 20
10 p.m. ET
ESPN

Jonathan Kuminga

Over 18.5 Points

Entering this year, Jonathan Kuminga had yet to average more than 10 points per game in a season due to inconsistent minutes. However, he did score in the double figures in two of four games against the Grizzlies, including a 24-point outburst last March. That came when the Grizzlies were healthy, a top-two seed in the West, and had one of the league's elite defenses.

This season has been a struggle for the Grizzlies as they have battled injuries and recently received another medical hardship from the league office. Kuminga is one player they have had a hard time defending this season. He has scored 20 points in both meetings against the Grizzlies, now three straight dating back to last season. He scored 24, 20 and 29 points in those games. Tonight, we only need 19 points from him.

Jonathan Kuminga has hit this line in 10 of his last 12 games. In that span, he is averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 54% from the field and 80.6% from the free throw line on 5.2 attempts per game. He has scored 20 points in eight of the 12 games in that span.

That means this line is still playable if it moves to 19.5, particularly given his recent track record against the Grizzlies. Kuminga is also +320 to score 25 points tonight at FanDuel. He has done so 10 times over the three last months since he began receiving consistent playing time.

Pick: Kuminga Over 18.5 Points (-128)

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Wednesday, Mar 20
10 p.m. ET
AZFamily

Jusuf Nurkic

Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds

This season, Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 11.5 points and 11 rebounds. That means he can hit this line if he just hits his averages. Recently, he has exceeded those numbers combined with 10.7 points and 15.3 rebounds over his last 11 games. He has hit this line in six of those games and was hooked on 21 in another.

Nurkic has done so despite shooting 46.8% from the free throw line in that stretch, down from 63.8% for the season. He does not have many plays ran for him with Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant all healthy. He has made up for it by averaging 4.8 offensive rebounds over his last 11 games and capitalizing on second-chance points. A couple more free throws or a few more field goal attempts could put him closer to 15 points than 11 points.

He may have that chance against the 76ers tonight. They are giving up 23.5 points and 14.4 rebounds to centers over their last 15 games. Brook Lopez, Nick Richards and Bam Adebayo have hit this line against the Sixers in their past three games. Adebayo did so without being particularly aggressive, but he finished with 20 points and 13 rebounds on 8-for-10 from the field. Philadelphia is 19th in points allowed in the paint per game since the beginning of February.

The one downside to backing Nurkic is he does not always close games, particularly when he struggles defensively like in Sunday's game against the Bucks. However, Mo Bamba and Paul Reed do not pose the same threat as a Bobby Portis and certainly not to the level of their MVP, Joel Embiid.

Nurkic may do most of the work to hit this line early with a double-double or close in the first half. However, if Nurkic plays 30 minutes or more, he should clear 22 points and rebounds in this matchup.

Pick: Nurkic Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

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Doug Ziefel
May 21, 2024 UTC