NBA Player Props Today: Expert Picks for Mike Conley, Jalen Brunson, Domantas Sabonis (March 18)

NBA Player Props Today: Expert Picks for Mike Conley, Jalen Brunson, Domantas Sabonis (March 18) article feature image
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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Brunson

On Saturday night, the Knicks grinded out a physical 98-91 victory over the Kings. Jalen Brunson led the scoring efforts with 42 points. Tonight, he will look to have another big game as the Knicks continue their road trip against the Warriors.

In the loss, Domantas Sabonis was his usual dominant self on the glass, but he only had two assists. Tonight, he may be back on triple-double watch against the Grizzlies.

Also on Saturday, the Timberwolves pulled away from the Jazz for a 119-100 victory. They made 19 3s, including five from Mike Conley. Tonight, Conley may lend a hand in helping the Timberwolves sweep the two-game set from the Jazz.

NBA Player Props Today

Monday, Mar 18
9 p.m. ET
League Pass
Mike Conley Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+110)

Without Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota could use a bit more offense to help out Anthony Edwards. In the last two games, it has gotten a couple of huge performances from its veteran point guard Mike Conley. The 36-year-old has scored 23 and 25 points in his last two games. He has gotten 30 of his 48 points on 3s as he has knocked down five in each of last two games.

On Saturday, he took advantage of a great matchup against the Jazz, who he will face again tonight. Over the last 15 games, the Jazz comfortably have the worst defensive rating in the league. In that span, they are allowing nearly four 3s per game to point guards, which is the fourth-most in the league. They are also allowing the most 3s (14.7) per game overall for the season.

Conley has been a streaky shooter this season, but I am backing him when he is running hot. He has attempted eight 3s in each of his last two games. With a little regression, he could still cash this line at plus money with that volume. However, if he remains hot, he offers value for four 3s at +300 and five 3s at +750 on FanDuel. He has made four 3s in four of his last 11 games.

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Monday, Mar 18
10 p.m. ET
ESPN
Jalen Brunson Over 29.5 Points (-108)

The Knicks have been without star forward Julius Randle since the closing minutes of their January 27th game against Miami. Including that game, Jalen Brunson has attempted 20 field goals or more in 15 of 19 games while averaging 22.5 attempts in that span. That includes a game where he injured his ankle in the opening minutes in Cleveland.

In that span, Brunson is averaging 29.7 points per game, up from his 27.7 average for the season. He has scored 30 points in 10 games of those games. He also been hooked on 29 and scored 27 in two other games in that stretch, including against the Warriors.

Additionally, despite the increased workload he is carrying without Randle, Brunson's efficiency has not slipped. He is shooting 48% from the field, 35.4% from distance and 85.7% on 6.6 free throw attempts per game.

The Warriors have been middle-of-the-pack defending point guards of late. They were able to hold Brunson under this line in the first meeting. In that victory, they jumped out to a 14-0 lead and controlled the game for the most part en route to an 11-point victory.

I expect Brunson to have a bit of motivation because of the way his team lost that first meeting. Additionally, I have to back him because of all the opportunities that he has.

In addition to the attempts, Brunson is regularly playing 36+ minutes per game — as most of Tom Thibodeau's core players are. Tonight, the Knicks are 5.5-point underdogs, which means if tonight's game remains close, he may play 40 minutes and shoot 20+ times.

He is averaging 29 field goal attempts and 43.5 points on the first two games of the Knicks' road trip. Tonight, we need 30 to clear this line. If he goes for 40 again, you can back him for 35 points at +250 and for 40 points at +700 on FanDuel.

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Monday, Mar 18
10 p.m. ET
League Pass
Domantas Sabonis Over 21.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130)

As one of the league's best passing big men playing on a high-powered Kings offense, we have become accustomed to Domantas Sabonis piling up the assists. He is averaging 8.3 assists per game, fifth-most in the league, and he has had at least eight in six of his past eight games.

Against the Knicks, he was only able to get two. However, he was able to extend his double-double streak with 21 points and 14 rebounds.

Sabonis has had at least 11 rebounds in 19 of his past 20 games and he is averaging 14.9 rebounds per game in that span. On paper, Memphis presents a difficult matchup in that regard as the Grizzlies are allowing the second-fewest rebounds to centers over the last 15 games. However, Sabonis has had 21 and 26 rebounds in two games against the Grizzlies this season.

We backed Sabonis for this combo in the last meeting and he cleared it with just the rebounds alone.

Sabonis also had 12 assists in the first meeting against Memphis and recorded another triple-double. He is averaging 9.2 over his last 20 games. If Memphis gives him more difficulty on the glass tonight, he could still clear this line with 12 rebounds and 10 assists.

He has hit this line in 14 of his last 20 games, which means we are getting -130 odds for a 70% hit rate over the last two months. I have to back Sabonis in this spot and would not be surprised if he had another triple-double. You can back him for a triple-double at +210 on ESPN BET tonight.

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Doug Ziefel
May 22, 2024 UTC