Klay Thompson Player Prop Pick for Warriors vs Nuggets

Klay Thompson Player Prop Pick for Warriors vs Nuggets article feature image

Via Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors looks to shoot a three-point shot against the San Antonio Spurs during the fourth quarter at Chase Center on March 31, 2023 in San Francisco, California.

  • Klay Thompson has been shooting the lights out in San Francisco, but can he continue his success on the road when the Nuggets host the Warriors?
  • Prop Bomb sees Denver as a tough matchup for Thompson on Sunday night.
  • Find Prop Bomb's NBA player prop pick and analysis below.

Prop Bomb will be contributing to Action Network's NBA coverage this season, also tracking all his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

PropKlay Thompson Under 4.5 Made 3s (-132)
MatchupWarriors vs. Nuggets
Time8:30 p.m. ET
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Sunday’s slate of NBA games closes in the Mile High City, where the top-seeded Denver Nuggets will host the Golden State Warriors. Klay Thompson has been electric from downtown in his recent four-game home stretch, but I will be fading him tonight when he plays away from the Bay.

On the season, Thompson has shown noticeable shooting splits playing at home compared to on the road. He sees a 3.5% dip in his 3-point shooting and drops to 3.7 3-pointers in 30 road games from 4.2 3s per home game.

Thompson has failed to cover his current 3-pointers made prop in 10 of his last 14 road games. If you take a deep dive at the misses, all four came against teams ranking in the top 10 in Opposing 3s Allowed after the All-Star break, including the Thunder twice (fourth-ranked), Rockets (first-ranked), and the Trail Blazers (eighth-ranked).

As for the matchup, the Denver Nuggets allow the fourth-fewest 3-pointers to shooting guards (2.69). Thompson gets a tough matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who ranked in the 84th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus, according to dunksandthrees.com.

The Nuggets allow a 33.1% defensive field goal percentage at home against 3-pointers, which ranks second-best in the league.

For all the reasons listed above, I find it hard for Thompson to continue his success, and I will confidently fade his 3-pointers made prop tonight.

Pick: Klay Thompson Under 4.5 Made 3s (-132)

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Nick Sterling
Jul 21, 2024 UTC