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NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets Picks for Warriors vs. Grizzlies & Bucks vs. Celtics (May 7)

NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets Picks for Warriors vs. Grizzlies & Bucks vs. Celtics (May 7) article feature image
Credit:

Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant.

  • With both series tied 1-1, Celtics vs. Bucks and Grizzlies vs. Warriors will be of the utmost importance on Saturday.
  • From spreads and totals to series stats props, our staff came through with four best bets for Saturday's NBA playoff games.
  • Check out all four bets and breakdowns for both games below.

With both Celtics-Bucks and Grizzlies-Warriors tied at 1-1, Saturday is a big day in the NBA world.

Since both games have so much riding on them, it’s a perfect chance to cash in on some opportunities in the betting market. We have four picks for Saturday’s games below, ranging from spreads and totals to a series rebounding prop.

Check out all four of our best bets for Saturday’s NBA playoff games below.


NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Celtics vs. Bucks Total
3:30 p.m. ET
Celtics vs. Bucks Spread
3:30 p.m. ET
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Series Prop
8:30 p.m. ET
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Spread
8:30 p.m. ET

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Pick
Bucks Under 107.5
Book
BetMGM
Tipoff
3:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Brandon Anderson: We played and hit the Bucks team under in Games 1 and 2, and we’re going right back to the well for Game 3.

A lot can and will still change in this series. Both teams had three days off to come up with new twists and ideas for this one, and the change of venue will play a big part since that usually means good news for Milwaukee’s home role players and bad news for guys like Grant Williams and all his 3s the last few games.

Will Boston’s shooters hit? We have no idea at this point and got extreme outliers on both ends for Game 1 and Game 2. But Milwaukee’s offense continues to be a slog without Khris Middleton.

The Bucks shot only 3-of-18 on 3s in Game 2. The three makes is a problem, but the 18 shots are a much bigger problem. That’s just not nearly enough attempts, especially when Boston is getting up 40 or 50 of its own.

The Celtics changed their defense in Game 2, staying home on shooters and largely trusting Al Horford and Grant Williams to hold their own against Giannis Antetokounmpo. That meant just five 3-point attempts combined for Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis.

This Celtics defense is nasty, and the way they’re defending, it’s taking away the 3s and role players and forcing Giannis and Jrue Holiday to do it on their own. They’re just 30-of-77 on 2s, only 39%.

The Bucks have scored 101 and 86 points, a 93.5 PPG average. But because Milwaukee is home and favored now, this line actually moved up from Game 2.

The Bucks found a few better answers late in Game 2 and will surely hit a few more shots at home, but this number is still in our favor, so keep on playing.


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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Pick
Celtics +2
Book
Caesars
Tipoff
3:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Austin Wang: The Celtics were glad to see young star Jaylen Brown have a bounce-back game in Game 2. After an awful performance in Game 1, he rebounded with 30 points in Game 2, going 11-for-18 from the field and knocking down six 3-pointers.

The Bucks came out with a dominating performance in Game 1 and held the Celtics to only 89 points. The Celtics were adamant in forcing someone other than Giannis Antetokounmpo to beat them. Boston threw double-teams at the two-time MVP, and he tallied up 12 assists by kicking it out to his teammates for open 3-pointers.

Game 2 was the complete opposite, as the Bucks went cold from behind the arc and shot 3-for-18. Milwaukee was down by 25 points at the half, but it won the second half, 46-44.

I think the Celtics have an advantage here. Boston made some excellent adjustments to its defensive approach in Game 2.

I anticipate Marcus Smart will be back in the lineup for the Celtics, while the Bucks will continue to miss Khris Middleton.

Based on what I see from the Celtics’ road splits and the Bucks’ poor home ATS record, I don’t think a six-point line move from Game 2 to Game 3 was warranted.

I make this game a pick’em and see value in backing the Celtics at +2.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Pick
Draymond Green Series Rebounds Leader (+330)
Book
DraftKings
Tipoff
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Brandon Anderson: The rebounding numbers in this series are tight through two games. Jaren Jackson Jr. leads all rebounders with 18 boards, but Ja Morant and Andrew Wiggins are right behind with 17 each. Draymond Green (14) and Brandon Clarke (13) are not far behind.

Notably absent is Steven Adams, who led the Grizzlies in rebounding at 10.0 RPG in the regular season. He’s finally back in Game 3 and should play a role in this series since Golden State doesn’t attack the pick-and-roll as much as Minnesota did.

Adams should siphon enough Grizzlies rebounds away from Morant, Jackson and Clarke to leave this open for a Warrior.

Andrew Wiggins is a tempting play at +2200, only one off the lead thanks to eight offensive rebounds. But the best play is Green. Remember, he missed half of Game 1 plus an early chunk of Game 2, or he’d be leading this already. Even so, he only needs to make up four boards to take the lead and he averaged 10.0 RPG in 104 games over the past five playoffs.

Green would be my favorite for this bet straight up, so he’s a no-brainer bet at +330. I may sprinkle a little on Wiggins too, just to be safe.


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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Pick
Grizzlies +7
Book
BetMGM
Tipoff
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC

Jacob McKenna: After suffering a narrow loss in Game 1, there were some questions about whether the Grizzlies have met their match against the Warriors and whether or not a young team would be able to compete in a series against a team with so much playoff experience.

However, those doubts were quickly put to rest on Tuesday as the Grizzlies came back out and defeated the Warriors, 106-101.

Golden State dominated in Round 1 against Denver. Almost everything was clicking for the Warriors, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Some of that momentum has carried over into Round 2.

In seven playoff games, the Warriors have posted an overall Offensive Rating of 117.6, which ranks second out of the 16 NBA teams that made the postseason. However, those numbers have fallen slightly early on in Round 2, which comes with some concern.

During the regular season, this Memphis team was the best in the NBA when it came to covering the spread, doing so in 64% of its games. That has carried over into the postseason, as the Grizzlies are 5-3 ATS and 3-0 in their past three games.

I expect Ja Morant to come into this one with some momentum after nearly posting a 47-point triple-double in Game 2. Memphis will continue to stay competitive and cause some problems for Golden State.

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