NBA Prop Picks Tonight | Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Stephen Curry, More (November 18)
Ronald Cortes/Getty Images. Pictured: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs.
NBA Props Picks Tonight
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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Welcome to the another weekend of the NBA season — and welcome to the best NBA player props today, with picks and prop bets for Saturday, Nov. 18.
This five-game slate features game totals from 213.5 to 245.5 points. A ton of different brands of basketball will be on display tonight. There are three player props that look incredible in our NBA Model that include Stephen Curry, Victor Wembanyama, and Alex Caruso. Let's have a great weekend!
There has been so much chatter lately around the Chicago Bulls making big changes as they are off to a 4-9 start after losing three-straight games. At this point, it would be shocking if DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, or Alex Caruso are on the team after the trade deadline. The Bulls are trending down fast as they are 2.5-point home underdogs against the Heat who have won seven-straight games.
In the Heat's recent win streak, they are doing what they do best and that is suffocating teams defensively. They are allowing 109.3 points per game with a top-10 Defensive Rating (111.2 points per 100). This game has a ridiculously low total of 213.5 points as the Bulls are projected for only 105.5 points.
Alex Caruso has been extremely efficient recently shooting 20-for-25 from the field, 12-for-16 from behind the arc, and 11-for-12 from the free-throw line in his last four games. He is averaging 15.8 points per game over that time, which is out of character for a player who has shot 43.7% and averaged 6.2 points per game in his career.
Our Prop Model has Caruso regressing back to the mean tonight scoring only 7.3 points against this stout Miami defense. On the season, Caruso has a 13% Usage Rate, which ranks ninth on his own team. It is hard to imagine Caruso continuing to shoot this well with a low usage rate and against the Heat defense tonight.
Take Caruso's under 9.5 points prop tonight on the FanDuel sportsbook. His under points and rebounds prop also looks intriguing, but this is a bet on Caruso simply coming back to Earth from his recent shooting streak.
Pick: Alex Caruso Under 9.5 Points (-113)
No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama has certainly lived up to the hype in his first 12 games in the league. He is leading the Spurs in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks while averaging nearly a double-double with 19.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Wembanyama is a threat on the offensive end, but his defense has been spectacular. With 2.2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game, Wembanyama causes nightmares for opposing players.
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After a 3-2 start to their season, the Spurs have lost seven-straight games and are 2.5-point home underdogs to the Grizzlies tonight. Similar to the Spurs, the Grizzlies are a putrid 2-9 this season as they are still without Ja Morant and now starting point guard Marcus Smart is expected to miss several weeks due to an ankle injury.
Wembanyama can take advantage of this matchup on the defensive end. The Grizzlies are allowing opponents to capture 8.5 steals and 6.7 blocks per game, which is tied for the fourth-highest combined steals and blocks total in the league. As a team, the Grizzlies rank 28th in Offensive Rating averaging only 108.5 points per game.
Our NBA Model has Wembanyama projected for an incredible 4.7 steals and blocks tonight. With his 2.5 prop line, his over looks fantastic. Not only is Wembanyama averaging 3.3 steals and blocks per game, but he has captured three or more in seven of his 12 games. Given the matchup, expect Wembanyama to dominate defensively tonight.
I would consider this line at over 3.5 steals and blocks since the payout at 2.5 is a little low. Shop around for his best alternate line if you feel as confident as I do in Wembanyama's defense against the Grizzlies.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (-160)
After missing back-to-back games, Stephen Curry has been upgraded to questionable to play and the Warriors need him back in the worst way. The Warriors have lost five-straight games, including four in a row at home. They will host the OKC Thunder for the second consecutive game after losing to them by nearly 20 points on Thursday night.
Draymond Green is still suspended, while Klay Thompson and Chris Paul seem to be aging by the game. The Warriors simply can't score without Curry in the lineup. In 11 games with Curry, the Warriors have a 113.4 Offensive Rating and are averaging 114 points per game. Without him, they have a 106.6 Rating and average 105 per game.
Playing alongside Paul has made Curry more of a shooting guard. Curry is averaging a career-low 3.9 assists as Paul has doubled Curry's potential assists with 15.9 per game compared to 7.2 per game. This is the first time that Curry has played with a true pass-first point guard and his assists are suffering because of it.
Averaging a team-high 30.7 points per game while shooting 48.8% from the field and 44.6% from behind the arc, expect Curry to carry the scoring load once again for the Warriors if he suits up. They need him to score rather than distribute.
The Warriors are 1.5-point home underdogs, but this may flip if Curry is ruled in. The game total of 231.5 points is great for Curry's scoring props as the Thunder rank sixth in Pace. However, his under 5.5-assist prop looks like the most enticing bet. He has recorded six assists or more twice in his 11 games played this season.
Our NBA Model has Curry projected for his season average of 3.9 assists tonight in this matchup, which is well below his 5.5 assists prop. FanDuel has the best odds on Curry's under assists at -113 and I would consider this at plus-money at 4.5 assists.