NBA Props Today: Value on Michael Porter Jr., James Harden Tuesday (May 9)

Tuesday night's NBA Playoffs slate features a pair of Game 5 matchups with with value in player prop markets on stars and role players in line for big games. I'm targeting one 3-point prop and one double-double prop in today's Game 5 matchups. Check out my picks for two those players below.

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76ers vs.

Celtics

James Harden has four double-doubles in eight playoff games so far. He is second in the NBA in assists per game in the playoffs at 8.1 along with 12.6 potential assists, per NBA Advanced Stats, despite the fact that the Sixers are last in assists per game as a team. Harden's also averaging 11.8 REB chances per game, second on team behind Joel Embiid, which gives us another opportunity for him to hit double-digits in another category, and playing 40 minutes per game in this series.

But the reason we want to target his double-double prop instead of points props is the projected adjustment these teams will make heading into Game 5. I think Embiid will need to boost his usage and have at least 20 shot attempts for the Sixers to have a chance to win. When Embiid takes more than 20 shots, Harden’s stats tend to get a boost. In 29 games this season where they were both in the lineup and Embiid took 20 shots, Harden had a double-double in 19 of those games (65% hit rate).

During the season, Harden averaged 4.2 of his 10.7 assists per game to Embiid. In the playoffs, it’s down to 1.5. I project some positive regression on that front, especially considering that 30% of all of Harden’s passes go to Embiid during the playoffs.

This line also moved from +130 to +170, which gives us more value.

Suns vs.

Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. is second on the Nuggets in 3-point attempts and it's encouraging that his attempts and minutes have picked up in this series. Porter has come out firing in the past two games with five 3-point attempts combined in just the first quarter of Games 3 and 4, and he finished with 19 total 3-point attempts in those games.

Now Porter is returning home, where he’s averaging more than four 3-point makes per 48 minutes this season. He hit this in better than 60% of his home games during the regular season (19 of 31 games). We’ve also seen over the last two games the Suns have shifted their rotation to be more focused on offense than defense — Landry Shamet and Terrence Ross are getting more minutes than Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig.

For reference, this prop was +165 in Game 3, and Porter hit six 3s. It was +125 in Game 4 and he went 2-for-9. It's also nice seeing our friend Joe Dellera also on O2.5 3PT, and he thinks so highly of Porter for tonight that he even laddered the 3-point props, thinking he’ll have a monster game.