NBA Standings & Playoff Picture: Projected Seeds, Odds to Make Postseason, More

NBA Standings & Playoff Picture: Projected Seeds, Odds to Make Postseason, More article feature image
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Tim Heitman/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic #77 and Kyrie Irving #2 of the Dallas Mavericks.

The NBA Playoffs are a mere weeks away. Teams are battling to the finish for seeding, home court, preferred matchups, and to make it in, or out, of the play-in tournament.

With so much parity around the NBA this season, we'll likely be waiting until the final night of the season to see who makes the playoffs and who will match up in play-in games during the opening week of the postseason.

Here's a look at where the each of the postseason hopefuls is slated to land in the play-in tournament, their odds to make the playoffs and Sean Koerner's projections for each team's playoff probability.

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Eastern Conference Standings
Projected Playoff Seeds
Projected Playoff Matchups

Western Conference Playoff Standings

Playoff odds as of Wednesday and via FanDuel
Team
GB
Playoff Odds Yes / No
Chance to Make Playoffs
No. 1

Clinched
100%
No. 2

3.5
Clinched
100%
No. 3

5.5
N/A
100%
No. 4

10.5
N/A
99.2%
No. 5

11
-850 / +540
87.6%
No. 6

11.5
N/A
94.2%
NBA PLAY-IN TEAMS
No. 7

12.5
-750 / +490
86.1%
No. 8

13.5
+180 / -225
34.7%
No. 9

13
-138 / +112
48.8%
No. 10

12.5
+520 / -800
13.0%
No. 11

13
+180 / -225
35.6%
No. 12

13.5
N/A
0.3%


Eastern Conference Playoff Standings

Playoff odds as of Wednesday and via FanDuel
Team
GB
Playoff Odds Yes / No
Chance to Make Playoffs
No. 1

Clinched
100%
No. 2

2.5
Clinched
100%
No. 3

5
Clinched
100%
No. 4

7
Clinched
100%
No. 5

11.5
N/A
99.1%
No. 6

14
-1800 / +880
92.8%
NBA PLAY-IN TEAMS
No. 7

14.5
-1050 / +630
89.4%
No. 8

16.5
-104 / -118
52.4%
No. 9

16.5
-102 / -120
43.0%
No. 10

18
+285 / -375
22.9%

NBA Playoff Picture

Using Sean Koerner's projections, we’ve predicted how the playoff standings would shake out based on simulating the final games of the regular season.

Here’s a look at where the NBA Playoff picture stands as of March 29:


East Notes

The East standings have largely remained the same over the past week. After a brief stint in the No. 6 spot, the Heat lost two critical games to the Nets and Raptors, which moved them back down to No. 7. They are far enough ahead of the Hawks that Koerner's model projects them to stay in that spot.

West Notes

The Western Conference is much more jumbled and difficult to project with so many teams in contention for a postseason spot.

The Pelicans jumped from 12th in the West last week to eighth this week and their odds to make the playoffs moved from +360 to +180 at FanDuel. The Mavericks have seen the biggest drop over the week — they had a projected 67.5% chance to make the playoffs before losing to the Hornets in back-to-back games.

Three of their next five games are on the road — Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta (second game of a back-to-back) — and all five teams they face in that span currently in the playoff picture (the Kings and Bulls are the other two).


Based on Koerner's model, here are the results of where each team is expected to land and the most likely first-round playoff matchups in each conference:

Projected Eastern Conference Matchups

No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
No. 5 New York Knicks
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers
No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
No. 2 Boston Celtics
No. 7 Miami Heat

Projected Western Conference Matchups

No. 1 Denver Nuggets
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers
No. 4 Phoenix Suns
No. 5 Golden State Warriors
No. 3 Sacramento Kings
No. 6 Los Angeles Clippers
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies
No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves

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Sean Treppedi
Jun 12, 2024 UTC