New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Tuesday, April 2)

Breaking down the New YorkKnicks vs. Miami Heat matchup on Tuesday, April 2 — as provide our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

We’re getting a 2023 Eastern Conference semifinals rematch when the Knicks travel down to South Beach to take on the Heat. Can New York bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Thunder, or will Miami take care of business at home?

Let’s break down the Knicks vs Heat odds and make a Knick vs Heat pick.

The Knicks have lost two straight heartbreakers, but we know this team is always going to fight, especially given the current playoff standings and how close they are to either earning the 3-seed or falling back to the 5-seed.

New York has turned to Josh Hart, Miles McBride and Donte DiVincenzo to absorb the majority of their minutes while Jalen Brunson and Isaiah Hartenstein have had slight minutes restrictions after returning from injury. That current starting five has been absolutely elite, as they have an unfathomable 144.1 offensive rating and a 106 defensive rating. That net rating of +38.1 would make them easily the best lineup in the NBA if you expanded it across an entire season. We are admittedly working with a small sample size, but the sample size is large enough to say this has clearly been an effective lineup.

That small-ball lineup should be able to survive against the Heat offense, as the only true rim threat they have is Jimmy Butler. As long as Hart can stay out of foul trouble, I envision the Knicks having defensive success here. Another edge for the Knicks will be their 3-point shooting. That lineup is currently hoisting about 40% of its shots from 3 and converting on 38.6% of those looks. They should be able to generate plenty of 3s here considering the Heat prioritize taking away the rim and rank 28th in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed (39.5%).

The Heat have been inconsistent this season but you could argue that is because a plethora of injuries have prevented them from having any sort of lineup stability.

When Butler has been in the lineup, the Heat have a +5.6 net rating on the season. When Butler has been out, they have a -3.7 net rating — a 9.3-point swing. Butler is back for this one and I’d expect Erik Spoelstra to try and game plan some mismatches for him to attack this smaller Knicks lineup. The Knicks will try to keep Hart on him the entire game, but outside of Hart the Knicks actually don’t have a ton of strong wing defenders in their current rotation.

I fully expect Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Butler to be heavy utilized to attack this smaller Knicks team in the paint. You can also expect Duncan Robinson to be on the receiving end of a ton of DHO’s and off-ball actions in an effort to hunt Brunson on defense. The Knicks tried to hide Brunson on Robinson in the playoffs last year and Spoelstra made them pay for it by constantly freeing up Robinson to rise over Brunson and drill 3s all series long.

The Knicks will need to prioritize taking away the rim and avoid fouling if they want to put together a solid defensive effort.

At the current line of -2.5, I’d have to lean toward the Heat. Miami has significant size advantages and is the slightly more healthy team.

As good as the Knicks starters have been, it is hard to bank on them continuing to carry this team with how bad their bench has been. I also think there is a case to be made that Spoelstra has proven he can out-coach Tom Thibodeau, and that will be valuable here since every game is essentially a playoff game for this Heat team looking to avoid the play-in.

Back the Heat at -2.5 here.

Pick: Heat -2.5

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