Thunder vs Pacers Picks, Prediction | NBA Odds for Tuesday, March 12

Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Thunder on Tuesday, March 12 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Pacers will fly from Orlando to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder on Tuesday night. Can the Pacers pull off the road upset, or will the Thunder defend their home-court?

Let's get to our Pacers vs. Thunder prediction and pick.

Pick: Over 235.5

The Pacers have struggled offensively over their past five games, four of which were on the road. During this stretch, the Pacers have an offensive rating of just 114.6, which ranks 17th in the NBA in March and a full 6.4 points below their season average of 121.0.

Maybe, it’s just outlier poor shooting and a cold stretch, but this is undeniably not the same Indiana team we saw early in the season. Since acquiring Pascal Siakam, the Pacers rank 25th in offensive 3-point attempt rate after ranking 11th prior to the trade. The Pacers are taking less 3s, which could hurt them here as the Thunder’s biggest defensive weakness is defending the 3. Oklahoma City's defense ranks No. 1 in rim FG% allowed, but 14th in 3-point percentage allowed and 24th in 3-point attempt rate allowed. The Pacers will have to knock down 3s if they want to upset the Thunder in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder may be without star wing Jalen Williams after he sprained his right ankle in their most recent game. Monitor the injury report because his absence would obviously be a big loss for the Thunder.

Williams is a very effective defender, but if he is unable to play, expect to see sixth man Isaiah Joe receive more minutes, along with Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins.

The Thunder have an elite net-rating of +14.5 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Joe on the court together without Williams, mostly due to an unbelievable 127.0 offensive rating in those scenarios.

I expect the Thunder's offense to be fine as they’ve actually been better with Williams off the floor this season. Scoring has been down in the NBA post All-Star break, but this total is too low for two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace and in the top five in offensive rating. I think we are getting some value here due to general league-wide struggles to score and believe this line should be closer to 240 than 235. I'll gladly take Over 235.5 and would play this up to 238.

Pick: Over 235.5 | Play to 238

The must-have app for NBA bettors

The best NBA betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW