76ers vs Knicks: Game One Prediction, Odds, Pick (Saturday, April 20)

Here's everything you need to know about 76ers vs. Knicks on Saturday, April 20 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Philadelphia 76ers may be riding high off the back of an inspired showing in the play-in tournament, but they'll meet their match on Saturday when they take on a team which has had their number this season.

New York has taken three of the four meetings between these two teams, holding Philly to under 100 points in each showing. Will its defense shine through once again here or will Joel Embiid's return continue to buoy a once-elite team in the conference?

Let's get into the best way to bet on the first game of this opening-round series.

The Sixers won ugly on Wednesday night, turning the ball over 16 times and shooting just 34.2% from 3 in a narrow home win over the Heat. With that said, the defense remained elite — allowing just 86.9 points per 100 possessions — something that we've grown accustomed to seeing with Embiid on the floor.

This team's fortunes on that end turned around in an instant when Embiid was reinserted into the starting lineup, moving to seventh in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3 and first in protecting the rim according to Cleaning the Glass. Considering it ranked 23rd and 22nd in these areas during the time Embiid was out, I'd say that is a massive step forward for a team which looked to be one of the worst in basketball without its lead man.

The same can't totally be said about Philly's offense, which is down near the middle of the NBA for the month of April. The Sixers may not be abysmal as was the case without Embiid, but they're really only knocking down 3s with a greater frequency and doing little else. It may simply be due to the fact that Embiid is not fully recovered from his knee injury, as evidenced by the fact that he's listed as questionable for this one.

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The Knicks have finally done just about all they can do to get healthy for the playoffs. After several key players cycled in and out of the lineup in the second half, just Julius Randle — lost for the season with a shoulder injury — remains on the report heading into the first game of the playoffs.

Without him, this team has survived. Most of it's been due to the presence of OG Anunoby, whose On/Off splits are rather comical, and we also have to give plenty of credit to the Knicks' front court, which has picked up the slack on the glass even with a tough end to the season in that specific area.

New York's defense has lagged behind its offense in the month of April, though that's not a wildly different story for this team. The rim defense has fallen a bit while the team continues to defend at a marginally above-average rate against jump shots. It's worth pointing out here that in this specific matchup against Philly, the Knicks have posted a stellar 92.8 Defensive Rating and limited the Sixers to just 28.7% shooting from beyond the arc, so perhaps they can take away the lone strength of the Sixers.

The Knicks pose a uniquely difficult matchup for the Sixers given their ability to switch around the arc and defend acceptably against even some of the quickest guards in the league on the drive. Their help defense inside has been solid, and having the length of Anunoby has created a bit of a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

Though only one of the Knicks' four games against the Sixers this year came against Embiid, it happened to be the most lopsided of all the victories. They exploded for 43.9% shooting from 3, allowing a combined 57 points to Embiid and Tyrese Maxey before smothering the rest of the Sixers and forcing misses.

I think the story will remain the same here for the Knicks, who finished the season with a 6-2 record in April and remain elite offensively. Philly is still lacking quality when defending inside, which will be a big headache.

Pick: Knicks -3 (-110)