The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following game:
- Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Raptors PF Pascal Siakam
THE PICK: Over 6.5 Rebounds (-136)
Kawhi Leonard (rest, out) is one of the best rebounding wings in the league, averaging 7.4 per game, so his absence leaves a few extra boards up for grabs. Siakam has been the primary beneficiary when Leonard sits, pulling down a team-high 9.5 rebounds in 35.5 minutes per game in the six games that Leonard has missed since the trade deadline, per our NBA On/Off tool.
Not that Siakam should lack for rebounding opportunities, as the kind of tank the Knicks are building requires plenty of bricks. New York has registered a bottom-three field-goal percentage since the All-Star break (44.1%), and Siakam may even get a freebie defensive rebound opportunity or two on the free-throw line, as Knicks' 74.8% percentage from the stripe since the break is also among the league's worst. (It was this type of rebound that essentially cost us the win on Jae Crowder's rebound prop last night.)
Our NBA Player Models have the 6-foot-9, 230-pound third-year big out of New Mexico State projected for 9.15 boards in 33.5 minutes tonight — a 37% difference from this prop's implied total. That differential is the highest of any prop on the slate by far and should provide plenty of cushion for it to still be rated a 10 in Bet Quality even if oddsmakers increase the juice or bump up the line.
Rebound props rated a 10 have gone 215-124-12 (63.4%) since the start of the season.
Knicks C DeAndre Jordan
THE PICK: Under 11.5 Points (-115)
DJ erupted for a Knick career-high 20 points in 34.2 minutes against the Clippers in his last game, but coach David Fizdale admitted after the game he gave Jordan extra run against his former team; DJ didn't play more than 23 minutes in any of the prior three games.
He's likely to revert to that norm tonight for the tanking Knicks, but even if he doesn't, he'll struggle to score against a Raptors defense that has allowed the third-fewest points per game to centers over the past 30 days (18.6, per Hashtag Basketball). With Leonard out and fellow forward O.G. Anunoby (concussion) questionable, Toronto's defensive vulnerability will be on the wing, not in the paint where Siakam, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka reside.
When these teams last met on March 10, DJ managed just 6 points in 19.9 minutes and had as many turnovers as field goal attempts (2), so him failing to crack 12 points for the seventh time in his past nine games would not be at all surprising.
This prop is also rated a 10, and points props rated as such have gone 140-84-5 (62.5%) since the start of the season.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.
