Tonight’s Rockets vs Suns Pick, Prediction

Here's everything you need to know about Rockets vs. Suns tonight, including our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Thursday night’s Western Conference showdown brings the Houston Rockets to Phoenix to face off against the Suns for the third time this season. The Suns took game one in Houston by a score of 129-113 on Dec. 27, but the Rockets got revenge at home just a week ago with a four-point victory. Let’s dive into this matchup to determine who will take game three, and more importantly, who will cover the spread.

Let's get to tonight's Rockets vs. Suns pick and prediction.

The Rockets, navigating through a rebuilding phase, have shown a mix of promise and struggle. Their offense ranks 24th in Offensive Rating and has been hampered by a low effective field goal percentage (27th in eFG%), indicating a difficulty in creating high-quality shots.

Despite a commendable 10th place in turnover percentage, Houston’s inability to convert opportunities into points has been a significant setback. The Rockets rank 16th in offensive boards and have managed to create an average amount of second-chance points. However, their 14th-ranked free-throw rate, coupled with a 20th place in free-throw percentage, shows room for improvement in capitalizing from the charity stripe.

Defensively, Houston has been surprisingly stout and ranks sixth in Defensive Rating and eFG%. This defensive resilience, especially in limiting opponents' shooting efficiency, contrasts sharply with the offensive woes.

However, the Rockets’ middling performance in forcing turnovers (20th) and a low rank in limiting free-throw opportunities (27th in free-throw rate) might give the Suns' efficient offense more chances to score, particularly from the line.

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The Suns have been a powerhouse this season and boast the seventh-best Offensive Rating and sixth-best eFG%. Their ranking at the bottom in turnover percentage (27th) is mitigated by their efficiency in shot making and rebounding, at they rank 13th in offensive rebounding.

Phoenix shines at the free-throw line, leading the league in free-throw rate and ranking eighth in percentage.

On the defensive end, the Suns have demonstrated solid capabilities with a 14th-ranked Defensive Rating and an eFG% allowed that ranks eighth.

Despite their lower efficiency in forcing turnovers and defensive rebounding, their ability to limit free-throw opportunities (sixth in free-throw rate) complements their offensive strengths, making them a well-rounded team capable of controlling games.

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Given the statistical profiles and the Suns' impressive track record against the spread in the first half (34-23-1), particularly at home, against a Rockets team that is third worst in the league ATS on the road (9-18-1), taking the Suns to cover -4.5 points in the first half at BetMGM is the best bet for tonight's game.

Phoenix's efficient offense and disciplined defense, combined with its exceptional performance at the free-throw line, sets the stage for the Suns to establish an early lead against the Rockets.

The Rockets' defensive strengths will likely pose some resistance, but their offensive inefficiencies, especially in converting shots and free throws, likely won't be enough to keep pace with the Suns in the early going.

Furthermore, I’ll be making a second bet in this game and taking the 1H Under 114.5 points at BetMGM.

Houston is the fourth-best under team this season in the first half (22-34-2), while Phoenix is the seventh-best team toward first half unders (27-31-1). Expect a low-scoring defensive battle.

Picks: Suns 1H -4.5, 1H Under 114.5