Saturday’s NBA PrizePicks Player Props: Value on Horford, Strus in Game 3 (May 21)

Saturday’s NBA PrizePicks Player Props: Value on Horford, Strus in Game 3 (May 21) article feature image

Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Eastern Conference Finals shift to Boston for Game 3 between the Heat and Celtics.
  • Our analyst has identified some value on Max Strus and Al Horford PrizePicks.
  • Tyler Schmidt breaks down his plays below.

Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.

Enter: PrizePicks.

With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.

You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.

Here’s how I would approach Saturday’s slate in NBA Playoffs.

What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (31) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.

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NBA PrizePicks Parlay

Max Strus Over 3.5 Rebounds

After splitting the two games in Miami, this series shifts to Boston for Game 3. Both games in Miami were won by double digits and weren't all that close. The Celtics are 6.5-point home favorites and the total is pretty low at 207.5 points.

Someone on the Heat staff must have gotten on Max Strus about rebounding because he has been on a tear recently. In the last two games against the 76ers, Strus had double digit rebounds and he has averaged 4.5 rebounds per game against the Celtics in this series — a number comfortably over this 3.5 rebounds prop line.

Strus has had four or more rebounds in five straight games and has averaged 4.8 rebounds per game against the Celtics in four games this season. He is in the starting lineup and has taken over most of the closing minutes as well. Strus will have plenty of opportunities to get over this seemingly low prop.

DraftKings sportsbook also has this prop at 3.5 with the over being the favorite at -145. This seems to be one of the best values on PrizePicks for Saturday as Strus is projected to play 30 minutes. During the playoffs, Strus is averaging 6.8 rebound chances per game and nine per game over his past five games!

Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists

The Celtics looked awfully good in Game 2 and now have home-court advantage with their odds to reach the NBA Finals sitting at -225. It certainly helped Boston to have both Marcus Smart and Al Horford back in the lineup after both missed Game 1.

This is another PrizePicks prop that has a -145 value on the over at DraftKings. The veteran power forward has been incredible during the Celtics postseason run. He is averaging 12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game — all numbers that have increased dramatically from the regular season.

Horford has recorded three or more assists in eight-straight games which gives this PrizePicks prop a ton of value. During the playoffs, he is averaging six potential assists per game and has posted several games with way more than three assists. In competitive games, Horford is playing roughly 40 or more minutes.

Our model has Horford projected for 4.2 assists, which is well over this prop line. Lines barely move on PrizePicks once they are submitted, but I would not be surprised if this moved to 3.0 assists and I would still take it at that number.

Lock in both of these props before they change!

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Nick Sterling
Jul 21, 2024 UTC