NBA Player Prop Odds, Pick: Fade Jerami Grant in Spurs vs Trail Blazers

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Spurs vs.

Trail Blazers

Jerami Grant, 27.5 PTS + REB + AST

There are a lot of high game totals for tonight’s NBA slate — in fact, all seven games are at 230 points or higher at nearly every book. While it’s always scary to take a player prop under on a night that screams offense, that’s exactly what I’m doing in fading Jerami Grant.

The Blazers forward has gone under this points, rebounds and assists (PRA) line in 14 of his last 21 games, which coincides with Damian Lillard’s return from injury. This includes failing to clear this line in eight of his last nine games.

In fact, since Lillard came back, Grant’s Usage Rate has fallen to 21.6%, good for fourth among Portland’s starters. Before that point, the first-year Trail Blazer had totaled a 24.5% Usage Rate.

The cellar-dwelling Spurs possess the league’s worst defense. But even though this is a favorable spot for pretty much all of Portland’s offense, Grant’s individual matchup against the likes of Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan is not as strong as his teammates' matchups. Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic are all in prime position to produce tonight.

And given Lillard’s postgame comments after last night’s painful loss, we could be in store for some Dame Time tonight.

So while this seems like a scary fade on the surface, I don’t see Grant producing at a significantly higher rate than he has been over the past few weeks. I have the Syracuse product projected at 24 PRA and would play this line down to under 26.5 PRA.

Pick: Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 | Play to 26.5)