No CodeNeeded

NBA Player Prop Odds, Pick: Fade Jerami Grant in Spurs vs Trail Blazers

NBA Player Prop Odds, Pick: Fade Jerami Grant in Spurs vs Trail Blazers article feature image

Cameron Browne/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jerami Grant #9 of the Portland Trail Blazers.

  • PropBetGuy is back with his top prop bet of the day, a fade of Jerami Grant.
  • With Grant's usage rate falling after Damian Lillard's return from injury, there's value on his PRA under tonight.
  • Find PropBetGuy's pick and analysis below.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Jerami Grant, 27.5 PTS + REB + AST

OddsUnder 27.5 PRA (-120)
Time10 p.m. ET
Books AvailableDraftKings

There are a lot of high game totals for tonight’s NBA slate — in fact, all seven games are at 230 points or higher at nearly every book. While it’s always scary to take a player prop under on a night that screams offense, that’s exactly what I’m doing in fading Jerami Grant.

The Blazers forward has gone under this points, rebounds and assists (PRA) line in 14 of his last 21 games, which coincides with Damian Lillard’s return from injury. This includes failing to clear this line in eight of his last nine games.

In fact, since Lillard came back, Grant’s Usage Rate has fallen to 21.6%, good for fourth among Portland’s starters. Before that point, the first-year Trail Blazer had totaled a 24.5% Usage Rate.

The cellar-dwelling Spurs possess the league’s worst defense. But even though this is a favorable spot for pretty much all of Portland’s offense, Grant’s individual matchup against the likes of Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan is not as strong as his teammates' matchups. Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic are all in prime position to produce tonight.

And given Lillard’s postgame comments after last night’s painful loss, we could be in store for some Dame Time tonight.

So while this seems like a scary fade on the surface, I don’t see Grant producing at a significantly higher rate than he has been over the past few weeks. I have the Syracuse product projected at 24 PRA and would play this line down to under 26.5 PRA.

Pick: Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 | Play to 26.5)

Get all of PropBetGuy's bets instantly in The Action Network app.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
Legal Online Sports Betting

bet365 Bonus Code TOPACTION Unlocks $150 Bonus or $1K Insurance Bet for All Sports This Weekend

Sean Treppedi
Feb 25, 2024 UTC