Suns vs. Clippers Odds, Preview | NBA Playoffs Game 3 Picks (Thursday, April 20)

Suns vs. Clippers Odds

Editor's Note: The Los Angeles Clippers have announced that Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out of Game 3 due to a right knee issue. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.

The Phoenix Suns head to Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 3 of their first-round series on Thursday night. With the series tied at 1-1, Game 3 is a pivotal swing game — Phoenix could retake home-court advantage, or Los Angeles could guarantee at least a Game 6 at home.

The series has been both incredibly interesting and exactly what we would expect from an Xs and Os perspective, with Ty Lue in particular playing right into the Suns' strengths — unless that's actually been his goal all along.

Let's dive right right into that in my Suns vs. Clippers Game 3 betting preview and figure out the prediction with value.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns collected the three best midrange shooters of this generation and based their entire offense around that trio. Of players to attempt at least 200 shots in the midrange this season, three of the top seven by field goal percentage lace up for Phoenix. Kevin Durant (56.0%) led the league by an astronomical amount, Devin Booker ranked fourth (49.4%) and Chris Paul ranked seventh (47.7%).

Since the Durant acquisition, no team has taken more shots per game in the midrange, but in this series against the Clippers, it has reached borderline comical proportions. This is directly from ESPN's Zach Lowe, but the Suns are taking just 21.5 threes per game — the fewest a team attempted per game in the regular season was the Hawks at 28.9. The Suns are also taking just 17 percent of their shots at the rim. That's right around the lowest percentage during the regular season (17.7 percent Warriors).

Of course, it wasn't an issue in Game 2, as they shot 58.8 percent from the field en route to 123 points and a 14-point win. So is it sustainable?

Yes and no.

There are two points in favor of yes.

1) The aforementioned historic nature of this collection of midrange shooters.
2) The Suns have done a great job targeting Ivica Zubac in pick and rolls, so these midrange shots are often coming against a dropping big who isn't known for defense in that area of the court.

However, it's worth noting that even with all that midrange success in Game 2, the gap between the Suns' point total in Game 1 (110) and Game 2 (123) nearly matches the gap in the amount of points they got from beyond the arc (18 in Game 1 and 30 in Game 2).

Even with a team loaded with midrange killers, this is often a "can you hit your threes?" league.

Los Angeles Clippers

The question for Ty Lue: Does he trust whoever the Suns' fifth starter is to miss a few more open threes now that the series has shifted to Los Angeles?

Torrey Craig has been the go-to guy for Monty Williams so far, and he's answered the call admirably, with seven threes in 12 attempts over the first two games. The books still don't trust him. His pointsprop sits at 8.5 for Game 3.

If those Craig threes go by the wayside, the Clippers will be in good position to focus their full attention on defending the midrange. But this brings with it more questions: Does Lue embrace a five-out approach to really blitz those midrange jumpers? Twitter certainly wants Robert Covington to be dusted off and used as part of said five-out lineup, but one of the Clippers' biggest advantages has been on the offensive glass, where they have a massive 27-13 edge thus far.

This is what happens when you're the underdog with a less talented roster. Every decision is a give and take, and it's really just trusting the underdog coach to find the right decisions on the margins where small percentages could add up to a small upset.

I trust Lue enormously in this way as he's one of the most creative coaches in the NBA.

Suns vs Clippers Prediction & Pick

That being said, this talent gap is just massive, so the angle I like for Game 3 is the under.

In a matchup between two mastermind coaches (Williams isn't quite on Lue's level, but he's pretty close), I like the under. Lue is going to be scheming left and right to slow Phoenix down.

This total went well under in Game 1, and while it did clear in Game 2, that required the aforementioned 58.8 percent shooting from Phoenix that I don't see holding up on the road.

Pick: Under 227 | Play to Under 225.5

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