Suns vs Mavericks Pick, Prediction Tonight
Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks and Kevin Durant #35 of the Phoenix Suns look on during the first half at American Airlines Center. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Here's everything you need to know about Suns vs. Mavericks on Thursday, Feb. 22 — our expert prediction and betting pick for tonight.
Let's get to our Suns vs. Mavericks pick and prediction tonight.
Suns vs. Mavericks Pick
Pick: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
Bradley Beal is listed as questionable, but the reporting of his injury speaks volumes to the contrary. Just before All-Star Break he reinjured his hamstring and was likely going to miss weeks. Players do not come back early from recurring hamstring issues, on a road trip, right after the break.
Beal will take his time to get healthy before the end run of the season when the Suns hope to overwhelm teams with star talent. For now, I believe Beal will be confirmed out early tomorrow, the line may move a half-point or more (it seems to be priced in already).
The Suns will continue to rely on Booker and Durant, with Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon to fill in the gaps, but they may run into trouble against the Mavericks lacking guard depth.
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The healthy Mavericks are a dangerous team. Not only did they add some strong role players at the deadline in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford — two tremendous fits with Luka Doncic — they are also returning a fully healthy Kyrie Irving.
Irving has been on and off the injury report all season, but he is completely cleared for this game. His play has been fantastic this season, and I expect him to take serious advantage of the Suns' inability to guard perimeter ball handlers.
Suns vs. Mavericks Odds, Prediction
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 245 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 245 -110 / -110 | -150 |
The early betting splits and line movement market angles agree with my read on the Mavericks. This line opened at Mavericks -2 and is now universally out to -2.5. Knowing NBA key numbers, -2 is the eighth-most common outcome in NBA games and has a low frequency rate, so the movement off this number and before the -3 is not a drastic change that negates too much value. I still find the -2.5 playable for one unit.
Pick: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
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