Thunder vs Heat Prediction, Picks Tonight: Wednesday, Jan. 10

Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Heat on Wednesday, Jan. 10 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.

The Thunder will travel from Washington, D.C. down to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat tonight. Can the Thunder capitalize against an injured Heat team? Or, will the Heat rally to defend their homecourt?

Let's get to our Thunder vs Heat prediction and pick.

The Thunder should be able to have success offensively: The Heat just don’t match up well with them.

I’m not sure who on the Heat will attempt to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but there is likely no one that can stay in front of him in their current rotation. Additionally, Chet Holmgren has proven that he is a genuinely elite shooter, so he should be able to pull Bam Adebayo away from the rim.

The Heat defense has been completely untenable without Adebayo on the floor: Miami's defensive rating drops from 112.1 with Adebayo on the court to 118.6 with him off the court. Holmgren's ability to pull Adebayo away from the rim and also potentially get Adebayo in foul trouble will prove to be massive here.

With Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin all unlikely to play we should see more minutes for Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jovic. That is a lot of 3-point shooting on the court.

I expect the Heat to have success from behind the arc, because the Thunder rank 26th in 3-point attempt rate allowed. If the Heat can get up quality 3s with these shooters on the floor, then they have a good chance to pull off the upset.

I like the over 234.5 here as I am expecting the Heat to launch a ton of 3s in this spot. Threes generally lead to increased offensive efficiency; but moreover, long-range shooting will be particularly important in this matchup as the Thunder will likely be able to run in transition off of long misses.

Furthermore, I do not like the way the Heat matchup with the Thunder’s athleticism. Oklahoma City will be able to play in transition; but even if the Thunder aren’t able to get out and run, their halfcourt offense still ranks No. 1 in the NBA. Miami’s halfcourt offense quietly ranks 10th, and the Heat have enough shooting to present problems for the Thunder defense.

Take the over 233.5, and play this up to 236.

Pick: Over 233.5 · Play to 236