Thunder vs Jazz Picks, Prediction Today | Thursday, Jan. 18

Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Jazz on Thursday, Jan. 18 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Thunder travel to face the Jazz on Thursday night in a battle of two young, upstart teams that could make a splash come playoff time.

Both injury reports look clear, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was listed as questionable on the front end of the Thunder’s back-to-back set in Los Angeles, despite playing against both the Lakers and Clippers. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is playing its third game in four nights in one of the toughest home environments in the league.

The Jazz — who would have been on a back-to-back — received an unexpected rest day after the tragic passing of Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojević caused their game against Golden State to be postponed.

Let's get to our Thunder vs. Jazz prediction and pick.

The Thunder have been the best team against the spread for the past two seasons thanks to their unique combination of youth, energy and athleticism, mixed with discipline, patience and basketball IQ. That blend is usually reserved for a veteran team, not the third-youngest team in the league.

However, even young teams can get tired and the Thunder have shown some signs of slowing down — at least temporarily. They’re coming off back-to-back road losses to the Lakers and Clippers and are set to play their fourth game in three nights.

Even before this four-day stretch, Oklahoma City has mostly been on the road in 2024 and its proficiency against the spread has slipped somewhat. Despite having the best spread differential in the league (+5.6), the Thunder are just 11th in the past two weeks (+2.4), per Cleaning the Glass. It’s nothing to scoff, but it's not elite. The defense, which has gone from elite (111.7) to average over the past 10 games (115.6), is the main reason for that slippage.

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Where the Thunder have faltered, the Jazz have stepped up. They’ve replaced Oklahoma City as the team with the best spread differential over the past two weeks (+12.3) and are 7-1 in that stretch. Utah has improved massively on offense, ranking fourth over that span (126.3). The great play might come back down to earth a bit, but this isn’t a fluke and the genesis goes further back than just the past two weeks.

Since moving Kris Dunn to the starting lineup on Dec. 16, the Jazz are 13-4 straight up and ATS. The move was unconventional because it slides Collin Sexton — who is generally thought of as a lead guard — to an off-guard role, which is unusual given his lack of size at just 6-foot-3. Neither Dunn nor Sexton is an elite playmaker, but the fact that the Jazz have such good spacing allows Sexton to more easily get downhill and spread opposing defenses thin.

This approach has also balanced out Utah's depth and allowed Jordan Clarkson and Walker Kessler to feast on opposing teams’ second units. Utah has the second-best bench Net Rating since the lineup switch.

I like the Jazz in this spot as I expect the Thunder to be tired. I would have liked Utah regardless, but it now has an unexpected extra day of rest. The Jazz also have the added motivation of having lost to the Thunder in each of their past four meetings. My model shows value on Utah down to +2, so I'll bet the moneyline to win a half unit as well.

If you'd like to play the total in this game, I could only look to the over, as I think we'll see a high scoring game. However, my model actually predicts this under. I see more value on the Jazz team total over than the full game with Utah playing excellent defense and the Thunder defense slipping somewhat. The Jazz are averaging 128.1 points per game and are 9-1 to the team total over in their past 10 games, per EV Analytics. I'll play it a bit safer and just stick to the side.

Pick: Jazz +3.5 (Risk 1 Unit) | Jazz Moneyline (To Win .5 Units) 

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