Thunder vs Kings Picks, Prediction Tonight | In-Season Tournament Best Bet Friday

Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Kings on Friday, Nov. 10, including our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Kings have cratered without De’Aaron Fox and have gone 1-3 since his injury. Their lone win came Wednesday in overtime against the extremely injured Trail Blazers. Sacramento has also suffered two blowout losses to the Rockets during this stretch. The Kings have an elite offensive rating (121.3) with Fox on the floor this year, but that number drops to just 103.1 when he's off the court. Fox is clearly the engine that makes this team go and without him, the Kings don't generate as many quality shots.

They also don't get out in transition as often as they have a 12.1% transition rate (seventh percentile) with Fox off the floor this year. The Kings have continued to generate 3-point looks without Fox and are still attempting 42.9% of their shots from 3. Regardless, this is a significantly worse team without Fox and Sacramento has struggled to defeat inferior competition over its past four games.

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The Thunder are coming off an impressive win against the Cavaliers and the vibes seem to be great in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have started off their season 5-3 despite playing the sixth-most difficult schedule thus far, according to dunksandthrees.com. Chet Holmgren, in my eyes, is an early Rookie of the Year Award favorite and is also legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

His ability to space the floor has been massive for the Thunder team as guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams love to drive the ball to the rim. As a result, the Thunder rank fourth in rim rate. The Kings have actually done an outstanding job of limiting rim attempts and rank first in opponent rim rate allowed (24.2%) this season. However, they rank 28th in FG% allowed at the rim as Domantas Sabonis and Alex Len aren’t outstanding rim protectors. I expect Holmgren to pull Sabonis away from the rim, allowing the Thunder to generate lots of good looks for Gilgeous-Alexander.

This is a really tough matchup for the Kings and they just don’t have a ton of edges as the Thunder do a pretty good job of defending the 3-point line. If the Thunder defense has a weakness, it’s their rebounding, as they rank last in the NBA. However, the Kings rank just 15th in offensive rebound rate

I’m not sure why the Kings are favored, so I will gladly take the plus-money odds on the Thunder.

Pick: Thunder +120 (DraftKings)

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