Timberwolves vs Pacers Picks, Prediction Tonight | Thursday, March 7

Editor's Note: Karl-Anthony Towns is out indefinitely with a left knee injury. Read what it means for the Timberwolves futures odds from Matt Moore. 

Timberwolves vs Pacers Preview

Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Pacers on Thursday, March 7 — our expert NBA prediction and betting picks for today.

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to Indiana to face the Pacers for just the second time this season. These teams squared off in Minneapolis on Dec. 16 and it was far from a close game as the Wolves broke things open in the third quarter — a frame in which Indiana has dominated this season. The Pacers best player, Tyrese Haliburton, was notably absent from that game, which was also before the Pacers acquired Pascal Siakam from Toronto.

Clearly, a lot has changed, so let's get to my Timberwolves vs. Pacers pick.

Pick: Timberwolves Team Total Over 116.5

The Timberwolves are 7-3 in their past 10 games, but are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven and have failed to cover in five straight. Their only good win came against the Clippers in Los Angeles, but that was on Feb. 12 — almost a month ago.

However, despite some disappointing results, the Wolves have made some noticeable improvements offensively, albeit against some lackluster competition.

Since the beginning of February, the Wolves have the third-best Net Rating in the league (+9.4), behind Boston (+18.1) and New Orleans (+10.5), thanks to a 115.2 Offensive Rating. That's an average rating over that span (15th), but considering they're 18th on the season and that their defense has remained elite, it's enough of an offensive improvement to make a difference.

The Pacers are back home after a three games on the road, going from New Orleans to San Antonio to Dallas and dropping all but the Mavericks game on Monday.

Since acquiring Siakam, the Pacers haven't improved much defensively, despite shipping out Buddy Hield — a negative defender. The offense has also dipped a bit, going from a 120.3 Offensive Rating on the season, to 117.8 since Siakam arrived. That may not seem like a massive dropoff, but considering that the Pacers entire scheme is based upon outscoring their opponents without any emphasis on defense, an offensive dip of -2.5 points per 100 possessions is significant.

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Given Minnesota's improved offense, I'll be looking at the Timberwolves to bounce back from a disappointing showing in a bad rest spot against the Blazers. They also get the Pacers coming home after a three-game road trip in what could be a letdown spot after their win in Dallas.

Per BetLabs, fading home teams coming off a road trip of three or more games, is 181-147-7 ATS since the 2022-23 season. If we look at just this season, that record jumps to 81-57-3 ATS. The 2022-23 season may seem arbitrary, but I chose that as a demarcation because it's one full season after the bubble, where teams got a unique period of extended rest.

I also see value in betting the Wolves to exceed their team total against a run-and-gun Pacers squad that doesn't value defense. Minnesota hung 127 on the Pacers earlier this year, and that was without Haliburton in the lineup pushing the pace. If we have a 130.5 full-game total, we can expect a 116.5 team total for Minnesota, which it should clear after having a few days off to recharge after a busy schedule post-All-Star Break. In their past 10 road games, the Wolves have exceeded their team six times, and I like them to do so again on Thursday night.

Pick: Timberwolves Team Total Over 116.5