Warriors vs Raptors Picks, Prediction Today | Friday, March 1

Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Raptors on Friday, March 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Let's get to our Warriors vs. Raptors prediction and pick.

The Warriors are coming off a solid win against an injury-riddled Knicks squad but this is a tough spot for them as this is the third game of their road-trip against a Raptors squad with a one-day rest advantage. They are lined at -3.5 which is basically saying that Vegas thinks this team is on par with the Dallas Mavericks as the Mavericks closed around -3.5 in Toronto in the same back to back situation on Wednesday. I’d argue that is wrong despite the Warriors very impressive recent form.

The Warriors finished out the month of February 12-3 but I’d personally still have them power-rated below Dallas and they don’t hold the same matchup advantages that the Mavericks had over the Raptors. The Raptors rim defense is very susceptible and the Mavericks have a ton of guys who love to attack the rim and exert pressure on your interior defense like Luka, Kyrie, Lively, and Gafford.

We saw the Mavs shoot an insane 86.4% at the rim in that game but with the Warriors were dealing with a much smaller team and a team that ranks dead-last in rim attempt rate in the NBA. I don’t think the Warriors will be able to consistently dominate inside of the paint given how small they’ve been playing lately.

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The last time these teams matched up the Raptors absolutely ran them out of the gym in a 133-118 rout that saw the Raptors dominate in transition. They’ve continued to push the pace over the past 6-7 weeks as they now rank first in the NBA in transition rate (17.6%) and transition offensive rating.

Golden State’s defense ranks 24^th in transition defensive rating and 22^nd in transition rate allowed and they always struggle in that department because they take so many long threes there are just inherently more susceptible to long rebounds and fast break chances.

This game will be predicated on whether or not the Warriors can force the Raptors to run offense in the halfcourt as they drop to 22^nd in offensive rating when playing in the halfcourt. The focus for the Warriors needs to be sprinting back to the paint and defending the rim in transition, and if they can turn this into a halfcourt game they have pretty good chance to cover here.

I have no lean either way on the spread but I think this game script lends itself to an over as we should see the Warriors launching a ton of threes while the Raptors respond to those threes by running in transition off of the long rebounds.

The Raptors have ramped up their pace dramatically over the past few weeks and their defense has only gotten worse with the addition of Kelly Olynyk into their lineup. Toronto ranked 29^th in defensive rating (121.7) over the month of February.

Toronto also ranks 28^th in three-point attempt rate allowed over that span, so this is not a good matchup for their defense on the perimeter. I like the over at 237.5 and would play this up to 240.

Pick: Over 237 (-110)

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