We march on to Week 5 of the college baseball season, and conference play is upon us. Buckle up for a loaded SEC slate, two ranked series in the ACC and a great Big Ten matchup between Michigan and UCLA.
Friday night also features the best arms in the country.
My approach for several years has been to bet undervalued underdogs and short favorites, then pair heavier favorites together in two- or three-team moneyline parlays.
It moves your breakeven point up quite a bit, but the disparity in pitching staffs and overall team talent makes this an attainable winning clip.
I came through with two moneyline parlays and an underdog to bet for Friday's slate, so let's dive into my college baseball picks and NCAA baseball predictions for Friday, March 13.
NC State + Southern Miss ML Parlay (-104)
- NC State vs. Boston College (3 p.m. ET · ACC Network Extra)
- Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State (7 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
Talk about two teams that could find themselves hosting regionals come Memorial Day.
NC State brings one of the best and most complete offenses to the table, while Southern Miss rosters one of the most dominant rotations in the country.
The Wolfpack sit fourth in home runs (36), 15th in stolen bases (45, most among top-20 home run teams) and sixth-best with just 80 strikeouts (best among teams that played more than 10 games).
Ty Head and Chris McHugh pace the way with 13 combined homers, while Head adds 12 stolen bases and 19 drawn walks with McHugh's .418 average.
NC State’s opponent, Boston College, did just topple Miami last weekend, but it wasn’t without its fair share of luck.
The ‘Canes stranded 15 baserunners, and BC committed four errors in an 8-7 extra-innings Friday night upset. I anticipate the Eagles will return to median this weekend.
Though they command a 70% win probability, Southern Miss is undervalued at Arkansas State. This is one of the best teams in the country, and that goes beyond mid-major status.
Trade Southern Miss for a similarly-rated team like Georgia, and this line is likely higher.
Pick: NC State + Southern Miss ML Parlay (-104)
Louisiana + West Virginia ML Parlay (+137)
- Louisiana vs. South Alabama (7 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
- West Virginia vs. Baylor (7:30 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
I like both of these teams as undervalued targets early on in the season. West Virginia takes on Baylor, while Louisiana plays South Alabama, both decent conference opponents.
Dawson Montesa takes the mound for WVU tonight after a rough outing against Columbia last weekend. In his first three starts, Montesa struck out 25 batters in 17 innings.
His run support has been spotty and has cost the Mountaineers two of their three losses. However, WVU’s 120 wRC+ still outduels Baylor’s mark of 108.
Baylor has one quality win, a 6-5 upset over Ole Miss, but the rest of its wins have come over New Mexico State (191st in composite rating), Air Force (201st) and weeknight wins over Texas State (64th) and Stephen F. Austin (161st). This isn’t a team I foresee making much headway in the Big 12.
Louisiana hosts South Alabama and enjoys one of the best home-field advantages in the Sun Belt.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are among the most complete teams in the conference, too, leaning on strong pitching and a sound field — teams are batting just .230 against Louisiana, 44th nationally. South Alabama is just above average in wRC+ (107).
Get familiar with the name Sawyer Pruitt, who stands 6-foot-7 and has allowed just four earned runs through 24 1/3 IP (29 strikeouts).
Pick: Louisiana + West Virginia ML Parlay (+137)
NCAA Baseball Underdog Pick
Alabama ML +124 vs. Kentucky
6:30 p.m. ET · ESPN+
D1Baseball ranks Kentucky inside the top 25 after a 15-2 start to the season.
But this is Kentucky’s first quality opponent of the year; UK’s first 17 games came against teams ranked an average of 175.5 in composite ratings, and only two of them sat inside the top 100 (The Citadel, Western Kentucky).
Alabama, meanwhile, has impressive wins over Oregon State, Troy and Iowa. Tyler Fay has improved significantly over four starts, ringing up 11 batters and allowing two runs in his last start against North Florida.
The Tide’s offense has the upper hand here against a strike-throwing Jaxon Jelkin (3-0, 2.53 ERA).
Realistically, both offenses have the advantage, as both teams sit right around 50th in wRC+ (118 for UK, 117 for Alabama). But Alabama has shown more against stronger teams than Kentucky’s 224th-ranked strength of schedule.
Pick: Alabama ML +124
