This college baseball season has been one filled with midweek carnage. Just last night, 7 ranked teams fell to unranked foes, and 8 ranked teams lost.
Picking winners with longer odds has been fairly fruitful so long as you stay the course. So, we’re going to look at another Wednesday night slate to try and find some value with another underdog outright pick.
Let's dive into my college baseball picks and NCAA baseball predictions for the games on Wednesday, April 15.
College Baseball Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network's Road to CFB is targeting from Wednesday's slate of NCAA baseball games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UConn vs Boston College Pick
Ask a month ago, and UConn would've likely been an "over" team for me.
The pitching staff was atrocious — Boston College hung a football score of 26-19 last time these two played — but that’s seemingly corrected course, at least a bit.
Its average runs allowed dropped from 6.5 at the time of the BC disaster to 4.5 in 21 games since.
Boston College’s pitching staff has been pretty good, turning in a 3.90 team ERA (18th nationally).
That last time out against UConn, BC surrendered 19 runs when the final bell tolled, but it did build a 15-4 lead by the fifth inning, and things unravelled from there.
Going from 45 combined runs to 11 or fewer takes guts.
Both bats are average — UConn holds a wRC+ of 101, while Boston College checks in at 98, straddling the line of perfectly average.
So, I forecast we’ll get much closer to average offensive numbers, especially now that both teams have settled in from that early March shootout.
Outside of first baseman Nick Wang (12 home runs), Boston College really lacks power throughout its lineup and instead relies on a disciplined approach at the plate and small ball.
UConn doesn’t move baserunners very often and also relies on a more methodical offensive approach.
Boston College plays the second game of a back-to-back after allowing only one run on five hits against Northeastern last night. That low-scoring trend should continue here.
Pick: Under 11.5
| |
Missouri vs Missouri State Pick
I don’t doubt Missouri State’s place in the national baseball picture. It’s a fun team tearing through its conference at 12-3 with real postseason potential.
But the reality about Missouri State’s record is that 17 of its 24 wins have come against Quad 3 and 4 teams (17-0). On the other side of the coin, the Bears own a .412 win rate against Quad 1 and 2 teams.
Per RPI, Missouri stands as a Quad 2 team that also beat State, 5-2, last week. Mizzou starter Jackson Sobel was quickly replaced with middle reliever Keyler Gonzalez, and the Bears didn’t plate a run after.
Weeknight results for the Bears have been erratic. Some weeks, they've been held to two runs against a bad SEC foe, and on others, they find 15 runs against Arkansas.
A combination of Tyler Charlton and Brock Lucas threw seven combined innings last week but made it only 1 2/3 innings the week before. It’s a real mixed bag.
This isn’t a section to convince you that Missouri is better than its in-state rival. But given the implied odds of 33.3% on Wednesday night, it's worth taking the bet.
Pick: Missouri ML +200
Note: Severe weather is expected around game time, so there’s a chance this game doesn’t happen. In that event, bets will be voided by your sportsbook.
