The Bellarmine Knights take on the Central Arkansas Bears in Jacksonville, FL, in the quarterfinals of the ASUN Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Central Arkansas is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Bellarmine vs. Central Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for March 6, 2026.
Bellarmine vs Central Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Bellarmine +5.5
My Bellarmine vs Central Arkansas best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Bellarmine vs. Central Arkansas Odds
| Bellarmine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| C. Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
Bellarmine vs Central Arkansas Betting Preview
Bellarmine Basketball
Jack Karasinski led the charge in Bellarmine's 82-79 first-round win against Jacksonville, scoring 31 points on 10-of-18 shooting. Karasinski has now scored 30 points or more in four of his last six games, averaging 29.3 points over that span.
The Knights are known for having one of the best offenses in the ASUN and the worst defense in the country.
Offensively, they rank first in the ASUN in effective field goal percentage, 3-point shooting, and free-throw shooting, while being second in offensive efficiency and 2-point shooting.
Defensively, Bellarmine ranks last in the country in defensive efficiency and defensive effective field goal percentage, while giving up 40.1% from 3 (364th) and 57.8% from 2 (350th).
The Knights have proven they can win ASUN games this season while playing as one of the bottom-tier defenses in the country, but when they play like the worst defense in the country, they lose every one of those games.
For example, during their four-game winning streak from January 28 to February 7, Bellarmine had the 289th defensive adjusted efficiency, but a top-25 defensive free-throw rate (22.1%).
They followed up the four-game winning streak with a five-game losing streak. During the losing streak, the Knights ranked 364th in adjusted defensive efficiency, thanks to being ranked 317th in defensive free-throw rate (44.1%).
Central Arkansas Basketball
Central Arkansas started 7-10 this season. Since then, it's won 13 out of 14 thanks to having the 25th-best effective field goal percentage over that span.
The Bears are led by Camren Hunter, who averages 19.7 points per game on 50/35/78 shooting splits. Though he's a 6-foot-3, 205-pound guard, Hunter likes to post up on the block. During the season, he ranked in the 94th percentile in post-up scoring, shooting 55%.
Overall, Hunter is at his best when he's attacking downhill, using his strong frame to finish at the rim. On the season, 45% of his shots have been layups, and on those layups, he's shooting 65.2% from the field, ranking him in the 84th percentile.
The Bears have the best defensive efficiency in the ASUN, in large part due to their ability to force turnovers.
As a team, the Bears average 8.8 steals per game, with five players averaging at least one steal per game.
Ty Robinson leads the team with 1.8 steals per game and is graded out as the team's best defender on Synergy.
On the season, opponents are shooting 34% when guarded by Robinson, averaging 0.748 points per possession.
Not only is Robinson a good defender, but he's also second on the team in scoring while averaging 19.5 points on 47% from 3 in two games against Bellarmine.
Bellarmine vs. Central Arkansas Betting Analysis
There's no fixing Bellarmine's defensive issues — it plays zone for a reason.
Bellarmine's zone has worked against Central Arkansas both times they've played this season. In both games, Bellarmine held a halftime lead, and in the first matchup, the Knights held UCA to 13-of-42 (31%) from 3, winning the game in overtime.
As good as Hunter has been this season for Central Arkansas, he's been inefficient against Bellarmine's zone, shooting 41% from the field and 17.6% from 3.
Bellarmine has proven it can score the basketball all season. If it can take care of the basketball against an aggressive Central Arkansas defense while forcing Hunter to continue to shoot jumpers, the Knights will be in this game.
My Pick: Bellarmine +5.5
