The East Carolina Pirates take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
UNC is favored by -26.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my East Carolina vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for December 22, 2025.
East Carolina vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 143)
My East Carolina vs UNC best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
East Carolina vs. UNC Odds
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -108 | 144.5 -108o / -112u | OFF |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -112 | 144.5 -108o / -112u | OFF |
- East Carolina vs UNC spread: UNC -26.5
- East Carolina vs UNC over/under: 144.5 points
East Carolina vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
East Carolina Basketball
East Carolina has won back-to-back contests against Buffalo and Presbyterian, but otherwise, the Pirates have found this 2025-26 season to be a struggle.
East Carolina has really had difficulty making shots, as Mike Schwartz’s offense has struggled with consistency outside of Jordan Riley, who averages 21.7 points per game.
The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (27%), and this group doesn’t shoot a lot of them.
We should see East Carolina slow this pace down and grind out offensive possessions against one of the best defensive teams in the country.
UNC Basketball
North Carolina comes in off a thrilling one-point victory over Ohio State on Saturday and looks to conclude the non-conference portion of its schedule with a win.
UNC has slowed its tempo considerably in recent games, as four of its last five contests have been played at 65 possessions or less.
Poor shooting has limited the offensive output for the Tar Heels. However, the defense remains completely locked in, as UNC boasts the fifth-highest defensive effective field goal percentage in the country, per KenPom.
I would expect a rock-solid defensive performance in this game against a struggling East Carolina squad.
East Carolina vs. UNC Betting Analysis
This line opened UNC -26 and the total has been bet up from 143.5 up to 145 (at the time of writing). I would anticipate this to be a slower-paced game, and I don't have confidence in East Carolina to score enough to get this one over the total.
I like the under.
East Carolina has had so many problems offensively this season, and they've been held under 70 points against Division I competition seven times this season.
I would expect UNC to game plan around Riley and guys like Giovanni Emejuru, Corey Caulker and Tybo Bailey are going to have to step up and make shots.
I'm not sure they're going to fall here, and I would expect the UNC length and size on the interior to cause problems when East Carolina works the ball into the post.
UNC is the sixth-best defensive team in the country in free-throw rate, and defending without fouling will create low percentage shots that are blocked or altered, increasing the likelihood that we see a ton of misses at the rim.
The Heels also excel at limiting offensive rebounds and putbacks, so I would anticipate a lot of “one and done” trips for the Pirates.
UNC has a good offense, but this team hasn't shot well from deep. Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar are going to get touches down low as the Heels continue to work Seth Trimble back from injury. Trimble had 17 against Ohio State, and I could see UNC getting him some looks early to get him in rhythm.
This East Carolina defense has actually not played terribly this season, ranking 161st nationally in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. The Pirates get back on defense and generally don’t get run out on, so fast break opportunities should be limited in this one.
UNC just came off a thrilling victory over Ohio State two days ago and has had to travel back and get ready for this game with limited time off. I could see a bit of a let-down situationally for UNC, as the Heels might be peeking ahead to an extended break for Christmas.
I would expect East Carolina to slow the pace to try to stay in this one, which will ultimately reduce the possession count to see this one stay under.
My Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 143)
