The Florida State Seminoles take on the Dayton Flyers in Dayton, OH. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Dayton is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 164 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Dayton predictions and college basketball picks for December 16, 2025.
Florida State vs Dayton Prediction
My Pick: Under 164 (Play to 160)
My Florida State vs Dayton best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs. Dayton Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 164 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 164 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- Florida State vs Dayton spread: Dayton -6.5
- Florida State vs Dayton over/under: 164 points
- Florida State vs Dayton moneyline: Florida State +240, Dayton -300
Florida State vs Dayton College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida State Basketball
Remember when Florida State almost beat Florida and it looked like the Noles could be a sneaky squad in the ACC?
That went away quickly, as Florida State has lost four straight games — three of which were by double-digits — and just lost to UMass at home.
I'm eyeing the total in this game from the jump. During that brutal stretch of losing three of four games, Florida State played three of the top 14 teams in adjusted tempo. In its own right, Florida State plays at a frenetic pace, sitting seventh in that same metric.
Luke Loucks is another brand from the NBA coaching tree, so it's not a surprise that Florida State launches 3s on 53% of its field goals.
However, the Noles are shooting themselves out of games, as they're hitting just 32% from 3 this season and shot at that number or below during their four-game losing skid.
The only main rotation player shooting better than 32% from deep is guard Martin Somerville (40%). Robert McCray IV and Lajae Jones — the top two scorers on the team — have to shoot it better, as they're just 26% and 32% from 3, respectively.
Defensively, Florida State gets shredded when it isn't forcing a turnover. The Seminoles want to push the pace and pressure opposing teams, leading to a 23.7% turnover rate.
However, they rank 108th in defensive efficiency, with opponents shooting 35.7% from 3 and 51.1% on 2s.
Plus, they're brutal on the glass, allowing opponents to grab offensive boards on 35% of their misses.
Dayton Basketball
Dayton is one of the few A-10 teams with a legitimate chance to earn an at-large bid. The Flyers are 8-3 with three high-major wins.
However, none of their high-major wins boost their resume much. Cincinnati, Georgetown and Marquette all appear to be mediocre, so the Flyers need to win games like this to battle for a NCAA Tournament bid.
The Flyers are a defensive-first team, ranking 44th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. Similar to Florida State, Dayton's terrific at forcing turnovers (24.3% turnover rate). The Flyers' defense inside the arc is also strong, as they hold teams to 47.7% on 2s.
However, teams have crushed Dayton from deep, connecting on 38.6% of 3s. Some of that is just shooting variance.
I'm buying Dayton's defense because it forces turnovers and defends the rim. Defending the arc is far more luck-involved than the other two stats.
Dayton is another high-volume shooting team that struggles to actually hit shots. Over 43% of the Flyers' shots come from deep, but only 32% of them fall.
The only "good" shooter on the roster is De'Shayne Montgomery, who leads Dayton with 16.5 points per game and hits 44% from deep. Javon Bennett is a stud point guard, a shifty playmaker and a gritty defender, but his light has become too green from deep.
The Flyers' offense ranks 97th in offensive efficiency. Although shooting is a struggle, they sit 27th in FTA/FGA and make 57% of their looks from inside the arc.
Florida State vs. Dayton Betting Analysis
It would make sense for Dayton to slow the game down and establish the paint. Florida State wants a fast, ugly game, and the Flyers are 145th in adjusted tempo. That's not a "slow" pace, but it's far slower than most of the teams Florida State has lost to of late.
The total feels a bit high. Dayton hasn't had a single game go higher than 163.5 points this season, even against elite offensive outfits such as BYU and Virginia and a fast-paced team in Marquette.
I get why the total is high. Florida State plays fast and went over that total in two of its past three games. I don't see it happening here, though.
My Pick: Under 164 (Play to 160)
