The Louisville Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Louisville is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Cincinnati prediction and college basketball picks for November 21, 2025.
Louisville vs Cincinnati Prediction
My Pick: Cincinnati +8.5 (Play to +7)
My Louisville vs Cincinnati best bet is on the Bearcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs. Cincinnati Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
- Louisville vs Cincinnati spread: Louisville -8.5
- Louisville vs Cincinnati over/under: 163.5 points
- Louisville vs Cincinnati moneyline: Louisville -450, Cincinnati +350
Louisville vs Cincinnati College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
If you like fast-tempo hoops, this is the game for you.
Louisville is one of the faster-paced teams in America, ranking 24th in adjusted tempo.
The Cardinals' guard play has lived up to its lofty billing. Freshman stud Mikel Brown Jr. is the Cardinals' leader in points (19.3) and assists (6.8).
Ryan Conwell, a lefty marksmen, is also averaging 19.3 points a game, but he's shooting 43% from deep.
Don't sleep on Isaac McKneely either, he's the Cards' third-leading scorer and shoots 42% from 3.
The name of the game for the Cardinals is shooting. They attempt 3s on 52% of their possessions and have the second-most-efficient offense in America, per KenPom.
It's not like Louisville is restricted to shooting and doesn't have bigs, though. The Cardinals have some high-impact inside scorers and rebounders.
International big Sananda Fru is the headliner, as he averages 11 points and grabs over six boards per game.
But don't sleep on small-ball four J'Vonne Hadley, as he leads Louisville in rebounding.
Louisville still has some unanswered questions on the defensive end. In two of its three games, it allowed more than 1.00 PPP.
Kentucky had a good offensive night against the Cardinals — there's no shame in that — but Ohio scored 80 points on 1.07 PPP. However, that game was a blowout, so that may factor into Ohio getting cleaner looks late in the contest to boost its overall numbers.
Cincinnati Basketball
You couldn't find two more polar opposite teams that play a similar pace if you tried. Louisville is all about offense and guard play, while Cincinnati uses its pace to turn defense into offense.
The Bearcats have only played one opponent ranked inside the top 215 in KenPom's rankings, so take some of the numbers with a grain of salt.
Mid-major teams seldom see the size that the Bearcats possess.
Cincinnati is elite at forcing turnovers, ranking 26th with a 22% defensive turnover rate. That allows Cincinnati to run in transition off the missed shots. The Bearcats also have an intimidating length that helps in holding teams to 41.7% shooting from inside the arc.
Wes Miller transformed his team in the portal, mainly by adding Baba Miller and Moustapha Thiam. Miller, a 6-foot-11 versatile forward, leads the team with 15.8 points per game.
Thiam and Miller both average 2.3 blocks per game, making them one of the most fearsome interior defensive tandems you'll find.
If Cincinnati is going to cover the 8.5-point spread, it has to shoot the ball better. It only hits 29% from deep despite almost half of its shots being from distance.
Veteran guard Day Day Thomas is shooting 61% from 3, but Kerr Kriisa and highly-touted freshman Shon Abaev have to shoot it better. Abaev is a big-time talent who can keep the Bearcats competitive in this game.
Louisville vs. Cincinnati Betting Analysis
I'm going to take the points here with Cincinnati.
The Bearcats have better shooting than the numbers indicate. Miller and Kriisa are shooting well below their career averages, and facing a potentially shaky defense like Louisville could be the perfect recipe to right the ship.
Cincinnati has faced a very weak schedule, but I'm buying stock in its defense. Between the fearsome interior tandem and guard stopper in Sencire Harris, that's a very formidable defensive unit.
When Miller was at UNC Greensboro, most of his teams were defensive-first unit. He's gotten back to his roots with this squad.
My Pick: Cincinnati +8.5 (Play to +7)
