The Michigan State Spartans take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis on Wednesday, Feb. 4. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on BTN.
Michigan State is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 132 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Minnesota predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, February 4.
Michigan State vs Minnesota Prediction
My Pick: Minnesota +6.5
My Michigan State vs Minnesota best bet is on the Golden Gophers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Minnesota Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 132 -110 / -110 | -360 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 132 -110 / -110 | +280 |
- Michigan State vs Minnesota spread: Michigan State -6.5
- Michigan State vs Minnesota over/under: 132 points
- Michigan State vs Minnesota moneyline: Michigan State -360, Minnesota +280
Michigan State vs Minnesota College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State took a tough rivalry loss in front of the faithful fans in East Lansing on Saturday. The Spartans are 19-3 overall and 9-2 in Big Ten play and will aim to get back on track in Minneapolis.
This is a classic Tom Izzo team, boasting the nation's second-most efficient defense, per KenPom. The Spartans are a bear to score against inside, holding teams to 46% shooting on 2s. They also keep teams to 30% from downtown.
Plus, the Spartans thrive on the glass, grabbing offensive rebounds at a 39% rate.
On the flip side, Michigan State holds opponents to a 22% offensive rebound rate — the best mark in the country.
The one thing holding Michigan State back is some pretty clear offensive issues, as it ranks 46th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
None of the underlying numbers are promising. The Spartans shoot just 54% from inside the arc and 35% from downtown. They also turn the ball over at an 18% clip — the worst mark for an Izzo-led outfit since 2019.
Outside of Jeremy Fears Jr. and Jaxon Kohler, the Spartans don't have much offensive talent.
Fears leads the team with 14.9 points and 8.8 assists per game, but he's not a shooting threat. Kohler is the team's best shooter, averaging 13 points and nine rebounds a night while shooting 43% from deep.
The rest of the lineup is clunky.
Coen Carr is a non-shooter and only scores using his athleticism. Carson Cooper is a terrific lob threat and screener, but he's one of three Michigan State starters who are bad shooters or don't shoot.
That could disrupt the Spartans' offensive flow.
Minnesota Basketball
Minnesota is on a tough losing skid, dropping seven consecutive games with two in overtime and three others by four or fewer points.
The stretch has been one marred by unlucky bounces. We'll see if the Gophers can get on track against a national powerhouse.
Defense is the name of the game for Niko Medved's squad, ranking 63rd in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric.
The Golden Gophers have inadequate size for the Big Ten. The tallest starter is 6-foot-8 Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, and freshman reserve Grayson Grove, who stands 6-foot-9. So, it's impressive that Minnesota limits its foes to 49% shooting on 2s (88th nationally).
It'll be invaluable for Minnesota to stay solid on the boards — opponents grab offensive rebounds at a 29% clip against the Gophers. They can't let Michigan State dominate the boards and give a mediocre offensive multiple looks.
The key for Medved's squad is shooting. They shoot 3s at a 45% clip but connect on just 35% of them.
Cade Tyson has rediscovered his elite shooting form in Minneapolis, shooting 38% from deep. His fellow big wing, Bobby Durkin, is also shooting close to 40% from deep.
One area where the Gophers thrive is making assisted baskets, as 73% of their made shots are via an assist. Some of that's due to the Gophers' lack of shot-creation, but they also move the ball well and cut to the hoop well.
Starting point guard Langston Reynolds is one of the more unique guards in the Big Ten, averaging 11 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 4.3 APG.
Michigan State vs Minnesota Betting Analysis
I'm backing Minnesota catching points.
What we have to consider here is the pace. Michigan State is opportunistic at pushing in transition, but that'll be tough against Minnesota, which forces teams to drain 18 seconds from the shot clock on average.
I just think this number is a bit too much on the road. Minnesota can push the Spartans here.
My Pick: Minnesota +6.5
