The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Alabama is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 174.5 points.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Alabama prediction and college basketball picks for February 25, 2026.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Alabama 1H ATS | Aden Holloway Over Made 3-Pointers
My Mississippi State vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the first-half spread and Aden Holloway to go over his made 3-pointers prop. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 174.5 -115 / -105 | +1000 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 174.5 -115 / -105 | -2000 |
- Mississippi State vs Alabama spread: Alabama -14.5
- Mississippi State vs Alabama over/under: 174.5 points
- Mississippi State vs Alabama moneyline: Mississippi State +1000, Alabama -2000
Mississippi State vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
Mississippi State Basketball
The Bulldogs (13-14) have had a very disappointing season in Chris Jans' fourth campaign at the helm.
Leading the charge for Mississippi State’s offense is its point guard and team leader, Josh Hubbard. The Bulldogs’ six-foot junior guard is one of the best scorers in the sport, ranking ninth in the country with 22 points per contest.
The Mississippi native is in his third season under Jans, having previously led the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons in Starkville. Hubbard is also posting nearly four assists and three rebounds per game.
Alongside Hubbard in Mississippi State’s backcourt, Jayden Epps is having a stellar offensive season of his own, posting over 14 points per contest.
The two guards are the only players on the team posting double figures in scoring, with the sixth-man guard Ja’Borri McGhee being next up with eight points per game.
Mississippi State’s frontcourt has been dreadful offensively this season, with its two seniors Achor Achor and Quincy Ballard averaging just six points.
The Bulldogs' offense is still scoring upwards of 76 points per game and ranks outside the top 100 in the country in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
On the other end of the floor, Mississippi State hasn't been much better, with its opponents scoring nearly 80 points per contest. However, the Bulldogs are slightly more efficient on defense, ranking 90th nationally in defensive efficiency.
While it's the Bulldogs' backcourt doing all the scoring, its frontcourt is far better defensively.
Alabama Basketball
The Crimson Tide have a 20-7 overall record, having won six consecutive games ahead of this meeting with the Bulldogs.
Labaron Philon Jr. leads the way for a Crimson Tide offense scoring 90 points per game this season. The sophomore is scoring 21.3 points per game, which ranks 13th nationally.
The Crimson Tide star has proven to be one of the best players in the sport, with Philon also recording five assists and 3.5 rebounds per game.
Alongside Philon in Nate Oats’ backcourt, Auburn transfer Aden Holloway is also having a stellar season. After coming off the bench in his first season under Oats, the 6-foot-1 guard has made his way into the starting lineup for all but one game in 2025-26.
Holloway is scoring just shy of 17 points per game this season, while also posting four assists and 2.5 rebounds on average. The Tide rank third in the country in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, largely due to the phenomenal play of their young backcourt.
Oats is very well-respected for his prowess as an offensive mastermind, successfully implementing his high-octane, free-flowing offense while previously serving as head coach at Buffalo.
The Alabama head coach favors a very high-tempo, “Rim and 3” style offense that takes a very analytical approach, stressing the significance of high-value 3-point shooting and lay-ups, as opposed to settling for jump shots in the lane.
Oats uses a “5-out” offensive structure that emphasizes floor-spacing, forcing defenses to switch in order to cover the entire floor.
There's no doubt that Oats’ offense deserves a lot of praise for its efficiency over the course of this season, but Alabama hasn't been able to replicate the same success on the other end of the floor. Oats’ defense is giving up a dreadful 84 points per contest.
While giving up a good amount of points on the other end is quite common for an extremely up-tempo offense like that of the Crimson Tide, their subpar defensive efforts remain a point of utmost concern.
Alabama ranks outside the top 70 in the country in defensive efficiency, per Haslametrics.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
While it's been a relatively streaky campaign for Alabama, there's no doubt that the Tide are finding form at the perfect time as they look to make it seven consecutive victories.
In the first meeting between these two this season, Alabama completely outclassed Jans' Bulldogs in a dominant 15-point victory on the road. Since that matchup, the teams are trending even further in opposite directions.
While you could surely play devil’s advocate that the Tide are due for some regression, I'm not going to overthink this one, and I'll be looking to back Alabama in two different ways.
Mississippi State’s defense has been far more effective this season at containing points inside the paint than on the perimeter. This should be very problematic, given that Alabama knocks down nearly 13 per game.
I'll be looking to back the Tide’s second-leading scorer — Holloway — to exceed his 3-pointers made (3PM) total, with the sharpshooter having knocked down three in the teams’ first meeting.
Also, I see value backing the Tide to come out hot in the first 20 minutes of the game, so I'll be targeting Alabama to cover its first-half spread.
My Pick: Alabama 1H ATS | Holloway Over 3-Pointers Made
