The Mississippi State Bulldogs play the Auburn Tigers in the first round of the SEC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Auburn is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. The total is set at 159 points.
Here are my Mississippi State vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for March 11, 2026.
Mississippi State vs Auburn Prediction
My Pick: Over 159
My Mississippi State vs Auburn best bet is on the Over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Odds
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 159 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 159 -110o / -110u | -330 |
Mississippi State vs Auburn Betting Preview
Auburn went 9-4 in non-conference play and started 5-3 in SEC play.
Since then, the Tigers have lost eight of 10.
There aren't many bracket projections that still have the Tigers in the field, but they are still an 11 seed per BracketMatrix and the last team in per Joe Lunardi. They got some help yesterday with Stanford falling to Pitt in the ACC Tournament.
The Tigers will look to play themselves into the field, and that starts with avenging a 91-85 loss to Mississippi State.
In the first meeting, Josh Hubbard went for 46 points and drained 10 threes. He enters the SEC Tournament coming off another 40-point outing against Georgia. The junior led the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons.
Barring a Sundiata Gaines-like conference tournament, this streak will not continue, but he will look to go down swinging. Hubbard is the nation's 10th-leading scorer at 22.1 points per game. He has had to carry the offense on his shoulders, as the team ranks 104th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Despite that, the Bulldogs have scored 74 points or more in seven of their past 10 games.
When you add that to a defense that is also outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency, you tend to get a lot of overs. Mississippi State is 5-2 to the over in its past seven games, and it has allowed 85 points in each of the last six.
Auburn's defense has not been much better during its tailspin, allowing 85.9 points per game over its last 10. It ranks last among SEC teams in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play.
But Auburn's offense is no slouch, ranking 12th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency this season.
Sophomore guard Tahaad Pettiford will look to match Hubbard as he has scored 19 points in seven of his past nine games, including 21 against the Bulldogs.
The Tigers have four double-digit scorers, led by senior forward Keyshawn Hall, who is averaging 20.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. He played the entire game against Mississippi State, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds.
Mississippi State's win over Auburn was just its second in the last 10 meetings.
Though Auburn needs one, I don't have much interest in backing them as a sizable favorite when the Tigers are 2-8 outright and 1-9 ATS entering this tournament.
However, like Mississippi State, Auburn overs have been profitable, going 5-1 in its past six games.
The over is 7-3 in the past 10 head-to-head meetings, and cashed comfortably with 176 points in the first meeting.
My Pick: Over 159
