The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Butler is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. Butler prediction and college basketball picks for December 20, 2025.
Northwestern vs Butler Prediction
My Pick: Northwestern ML +114
My Northwestern vs Butler best bet is on the Wildcats to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northwestern vs. Butler Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 158.5 -112o / -108u | +114 |
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 158.5 -112o / -108u | -135 |
- Northwestern vs Butler spread: Butler -1.5
- Northwestern vs Butler over/under: 158.5 points
- Northwestern vs Butler moneyline: Northwestern +114, Butler -135
Northwestern vs Butler College Basketball Betting Preview
Northwestern Basketball
Northwestern is 7-4 on the season, taking care of business against lesser competition but struggling to break through against the better teams on its schedule. The Wildcats played Virginia, Oklahoma State and Ohio State tough, losing each of those games by just two possessions.
This is year 13 for Chris Collins in Evanston, where he's built a reputation as a defensive-minded coach. However, this season’s group sits outside the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, marking only the second time in the past 10 years that's been the case.
The Wildcats have especially struggled on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab roughly one-third of their missed shots.
Offensively, Northwestern takes excellent care of the ball, ranking 20th nationally in turnover rate. Playing through the interior scoring of versatile forwards Nick Martinelli and Arrinten Page, the Wildcats are shooting 59% from inside the arc.
Martinelli, in particular, has been on an absolute heater. The lefty is averaging 27.6 points per game over his last three outings while shooting 67% from the field.
The Wildcats also rank 16th nationally in assist rate, with USF transfer guard Jayden Reid contributing 5.5 assists per game. Only about one-third of their shot attempts come from 3-point range, placing them outside the top 300 nationally in 3-point attempt rate.
Butler Basketball
Butler is off to an 8-3 start in year four under Thad Matta. After opening the season 7-1 with an impressive neutral-court win over Virginia, the Bulldogs looked like a potential third-best team in the Big East.
The past few weeks, however, have been more challenging.
The Bulldogs suffered a major blow when Purdue Fort Wayne transfer Jalen Jackson went down with a season-ending injury. His absence has pushed freshman Azavier Robinson into a larger role, and while he's been solid, the rotation has clearly felt the impact.
Butler did manage to outlast Providence at home in a wild 113-110 double-overtime game, but followed that with a nine-point home loss to Boise State and a 19-point defeat at UConn on Tuesday, where it struggled to stay competitive.
Gonzaga transfer Michael Ajayi and junior Finley Bizjack have led the way for this group. Ajayi, a 6-foot-7, 235-pound forward, is a matchup nightmare who scores efficiently inside the arc and lives at the free throw line.
He's also been one of the best rebounders in the country, averaging 11.5 boards per game to go along with his 16.5 points.
Bizjack has taken a noticeable step forward in each of his three seasons at Butler, raising his scoring output to 17.7 points per game as a junior. That said, he's gone cold from deep over the past three games, shooting just 3-for-20 after a scorching 26-for-57 start over the first eight contests.
Defensively, Butler has done an excellent job of avoiding fouls, ranking seventh nationally in foul rate. The Bulldogs also like to run teams off the 3-point line, allowing the 11th-lowest 3-point attempt rate in the country.
Northwestern vs. Butler Betting Analysis
This is a semi-home spot for Butler at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With both teams currently sitting in the 50s on KenPom, this game presents an important opportunity to add a quality non-conference win that could matter on Selection Sunday.
These teams met on Thanksgiving in 2024, with Butler holding on for a 71-69 win. It's worth noting that Martinelli struggled in that matchup, shooting just 3-for-15 from the field. Jahmyl Telfort won't be around to guard him this time, but Ajayi presents a very similar physical profile.
Ajayi is the clear X-factor in this one. If he can hold his own defensively against Martinelli while also generating second-chance points on the offensive glass, Butler has a real path to winning this game.
That said, I ultimately trust Northwestern as the more complete team. Butler hasn't looked the same since Jackson went down, while the Wildcats have consistently played tournament-level teams down to the wire. I think it's time for them to finish off one of these close contests with a victory.
Martinelli and company get their revenge for last season's loss.
My Pick: Northwestern ML +114
