North Carolina State Wolfpack Odds

NCAA hoops prop (NCSU vs. KU) Quadir Copeland under 0.5 3PM (+150 at Bet365, +145 at BetMGM) https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/college-basketball-player-prop-dr-nicks-pick-for-nc-state-vs-kansas Copeland is currently shooting an unsustainable 55.6% from downtown, which is crazy given his career average is 27.1% and he's never finished a season better than 25%. I've regressed his 3P% to a generous 35% (I could go lower, but am leaving it up for now) but he faces the Kansas Jayhawks who allow the third-lowest three point made percentage in all of college hoops despite facing a top-10 schedule. Copeland isn't really a high volume three point shooter either, having attempted at most three in a game this year, and more than three just four times in his four-year career, three of which came as a regular starter. If we assume he'd be even lower than my projected long-term 35% because he faces the Jayhawks, then I'm getting him for almost exactly 0.6 3PM as a long-term number in this game. That means he'd stay under 0.5 around 54.5% of the time, making +150 (40% implied odds) fantastic value with a raw edge around 14.5%. This is good at any plus odds.

Points preferably 148 of them

Would bet this