The NC State Wolfpack take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -162. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my NC State vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.
NC State vs Vanderbilt Prediction
- NC State vs. Vanderbilt Pick: NC State ML +145 (Play to +130)
My Vanderbilt vs. NC State best bet is on the Wolfpack to spring the road upset. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds pageand be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
NC State vs Vanderbilt Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +134 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
- NC State vs Vanderbilt point spread: NC State +3.5 (-112), Vanderbilt -3.5 (-108)
- NC State vs Vanderbilt over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- NC State vs Vanderbilt moneyline: NC State +134, Vanderbilt -162
NC State vs Vanderbilt College Football Preview
NC State Wolfpack
Through two games, we have two vastly different data points for NC State.
On one hand, the Wolfpack took it on the chin against Virginia, getting crushed 38-7 in a game that was utterly noncompetitive.
On the other hand, you have a 73-0 win over FCS Richmond, a respectable but not world-beating Division I-AA team.
This week will give us a very important data point as NC State travels to play Vanderbilt.
There's some good to like. Jayden Scott has been explosive at running back, Will Wilson remains a viable change-of-pace run-first QB and of course, you have the imposing CJ Bailey.
Bailey hasn't been asked to do much early on and was outclassed against Virginia's veteran roster, but he remains one of the more physically gifted quarterbacks in the country.
We're on Year 2 of DC DJ Eliot and OC Kurt Roper, and neither has looked anything but predictable. Hollywood Smothers did a lot to cover up offensive deficiencies, but he's on to Texas (and looked darn good against Ohio State).
Now the offense falls more to Bailey and an experienced but not excellent offensive line. For the season-long picture, NC State doesn't excite me.
But that's really the broad picture of this team right now. And having been beaten so thoroughly by an obviously superior team (we can discuss Virginia's merits elsewhere), we're getting NC State at a slight discount.
The Wolfpack won't see a defense as aggressive as Virginia's until at least October and, after that, probably not for the rest of the year.
Vanderbilt Commodores
It didn't take long for Clark Lea to formally make the change from Blaze Berlowitz to five-star freshman Jared Curtis. Curtis took over on the third drive of the game after Vanderbilt went three-and-out twice against Delaware.To cap the short-field drive, Curtis punched in a one-yard touchdown run.
On Sunday, Lea said Vanderbilt would proceed with Curtis as QB1.
Through two games, Vanderbilt's been less than exciting. It's a far cry from the 10-win team under Diego Pavia last year. Vandy allowed 26 points to a respectable — but probably not world-beating — offense in Delaware and only mustered 28 against FCS Austin Peay.
Curtis brings pop to the offense, but this passing attack has been too reliant on Junior Sherrill (17 targets; nobody else has five). The offensive line is mediocre, and the run game is feeble.
OC Tim Beck is showing his hand without Pavia, Tre Richardson and Eli Stowers. He runs a fast tempo (23.9 seconds per play), but it's painfully inefficient right now. Perhaps the move to Curtis changes things.
The biggest problem aside from quarterback is the deficiency up front on defense. Delaware's offensive line created 3.02 yards per rush (more than Vanderbilt's 2.83!) and Austin Peay's created 3.11.
Although it carries plenty of size — Yilanan Ouattara stands 6-foot-7, and Glenn Seabrooks II weighs 340 pounds — it hasn't been nearly good enough.
There's no pass rush, and it's been put on skates in the run game.
NC State vs Vanderbilt Pick, Betting Analysis
Pack a sun umbrella and a portable fan — a massive southeastern heat dome is forecast to bring temperatures of 97º to Nashville on Saturday. This is an 11:45 a.m. local kick, and temperatures will soar throughout the game.
FirstBank Stadium has field turf, meaning temperatures near the field will be pushing 120º or higher. Expect cramps, rotations and lots of shots of fans with water on the players. It's going to be scorching.
Lea hasn't been excellent at home during his Vanderbilt tenure. Under Pavia, Lea went 10-4 ATS at home, but outside Pavia, that number drops to 4-15 ATS (and 9-15 ATS against all non-conference foes, including Austin Peay and Delaware).
NC State got killed by Virginia in Week 1, which really hurt its power rating. Virginia fields one of the most veteran teams in the country, packed with fifth-year players, and NC State was completely overwhelmed.
While I'm not looking to back NC State long-term or against quality opponents, I do believe we're getting the Wolfpack at a discount.
Vanderbilt operates best as an underdog and, instead, it's laying points in this one with a brand new freshman quarterback. We have a decent total, which leads to higher variance, and NC State has the quarterback advantage in Bailey.
NC State is a live 'dog.
Pick: NC State ML +145 (Play to +130)
