The Oregon State Beavers take on the San Francisco Dons in San Francisco, CA. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
San Francisco is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 140 points.
Here’s my Oregon State vs. San Francisco prediction and college basketball picks for February 12, 2026.
Oregon State vs San Francisco Prediction
My Pick: Over 140 (Play to 141.5)
My Oregon State vs San Francisco best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon State vs. San Francisco Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 140 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| San Francisco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 140 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Oregon State vs San Francisco spread: San Francisco -8.5
- Oregon State vs San Francisco over/under: 140 points
- Oregon State vs San Francisco moneyline: Oregon State +350, San Francisco -450
Oregon State vs San Francisco College Basketball Betting Preview
Oregon State Basketball
Oregon State might've been the team hit hardest by conference realignment of any other in America. Remember, this was an Elite Eight participant in 2021, and it's seen itself relegated from a power-conference contender to a team that struggles to stack wins together in the WCC.
This season is no different for Wayne Tinkle, who's seen a ton of highs and lows during his dozen campaigns in Corvallis. The Beavers sit at 13-13 overall and 6-7 in league play, but this group has struggled with consistency.
The good news is that the Beavers are starting to gel a bit down the stretch. Oregon State put quite the scare into Gonzaga for 30 minutes and had won three league games in a row prior to that.
The offense is led by Josiah Lake II, who's the only Beaver averaging in double figures with 13.3 points per game. Lake also leads the Beavers in assists with 97, while pulling down 4.2 rebounds per contest.
Meanwhile, Dez White and Isaiah Sy each average 9.7 points a night.
Beyond that, the list of contributors is long, as Oregon State plays 11 players at least 12 minutes per contest — although none are standout performers.
The defense has struggled defending the interior, as Oregon State ranks 10th in 2-point defense in the WCC and 11th in defensive free-throw rate. Aggressive offenses have been able to get paint touches, and with how San Francisco can run a high-low offensive game, this will be something to watch in this matchup.
San Francisco Basketball
San Francisco has to be disappointed with where it sits in the WCC standings at this point in the season. Strong non-conference victories over Minnesota and Mississippi State were promising, but the Dons haven't been able to put it together in league play (6-7 in the WCC).
The Dons are dangerous and capable of defeating anybody in this league, but three of the last four games have resulted in embarrassing losses — thus, the season has started to slip away from Chris Gerlufsen and the Dons.
The offense is led by Ryan Beasley, who averages 14 points per game for the Dons, while leading San Francisco in assists with 89. Beasley can score off the dribble, shoot outside jumpers and he gets to the line frequently.
David Fuchs has rounded into a solid contributor while averaging 11.6 points per game, and Tyrone Riley IV adds 11.4 points. Mookie Cook, Junjie Wang and Legend Smiley are significant contributors and when these guys are on, the Dons are a dangerous bunch offensively.
Defensively, San Francisco does well to defend the paint without being overly aggressive. It ranks as the second-best team in the WCC in defensive free-throw rate. This isn't an overly aggressive defense, as the Dons aren't going to force a ton of turnovers, and the post defense isn't one that's going to alter and block shots in the painted area.
San Francisco is average at defending the 3-point line and can, at times, get torched on the drive. Oregon State did a good job finding a groove against San Francisco in the first meeting, and I'll be interested in seeing how this matchup manifests itself on Thursday.
Oregon State vs. San Francisco Betting Analysis
This line opened with San Francisco pegged as an 8.5-point favorite with a total set at 140.5. I like the over in this matchup.
There's also another fun storyline here, as this matchup pits twin brothers Jorge (Oregon State) and Guillermo (USF) Diaz Graham up against one another.
Oregon State has been much more aggressive on the offensive end and has been getting more trips to the foul line over the last three contests. Getting touches for Johan Munch and Yaak Yaak in the post will be critical for Oregon State, but I think we'll see the Beavers have success getting decent looks inside.
In the first matchup between these two, Oregon State shot 12-of-23 from 2-point range and 13-of-14 from the foul line while scoring 45 points in the second half. I don’t think the Beavers waste any time in executing what worked well in that game in the second meeting.
That matchup also saw uncharacteristically bad shooting from the Dons, who shot just 4-of-21 from deep. This is a dangerous outside shooting team, with seven players who have made at least 20 3-point shots this season, and I would expect the Dons to shoot better at home.
Neither of these defenses is going to be overly aggressive or domineering in this matchup, so it comes down to half-court execution and knocking down shots.
I expect San Francisco to shoot better than it did in the first matchup and for Oregon State to be more aggressive on the offensive end, leading to more good looks and trips to the charity stripe.
I think this one goes over, so at 140.5 or better, I'm in on the high side.
My Pick: Over 140 (Play to 141.5)
