The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Michigan is favored by 25.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for February 5, 2026.
Penn State vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Penn State +25.5
My Penn State vs Michigan best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs. Michigan Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 163.5 -110 / -110 | +3000 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 163.5 -110 / -110 | -10000 |
- Penn State vs Michigan spread: Michigan -25.5
- Penn State vs Michigan over/under: 163.5 points
- Penn State vs Michigan moneyline: Penn State +3000, Michigan -10000
Penn State vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
Penn State Basketball
The Nittany Lions are 10-12 overall and 1-10 in the Big Ten. They're coming off their first conference win of the season and their first win in over a month after beating Minnesota 77-75.
For the life of me, I don't understand this team.
The Nittany Lions have hands down the worst defense in the Big Ten and among the worst in the country. Since December 9, Penn State ranks last nationally in defensive efficiency field goal percentage (61.9%), 2-point defense (62%) and 358th in 3-point defense (41.1%).
With those defensive metrics, especially since December 9, they must've been blown out by the best teams in the Big Ten? Well, that's not true.
They've played four of the top five teams in the Big Ten already, with an average margin of loss being 5.5 points, including their 74-72 home loss to Michigan.
Some of their worst losses of the season have come against Indiana (113-72), Pittsburgh (80-46) and Maryland (96-73), yet they played Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue within single digits.
Freshman Kayden Mingo leads the team in scoring, averaging 14.1 points per game with the game-winner against Minnesota.
Penn State's offense is pretty simple. It's letting Mingo or Freddie Dilione V look to create as the ball handlers in the pick-and-roll.
Dilione is shooting 41-of-72 (57%) from the field off of pick-and-roll actions, while Mingo is shooting 31-of-73 (43%).
Michigan Basketball
Michigan is coming off back-to-back statement wins against Nebraska and at Michigan State.
The Wolverines now sit at 20-1 overall and 10-1 in the Big Ten.
Via Bart Torvik, Michigan has the best defense in the country and the fourth-best offense. The Wolverines have been great at creating baskets around the rim (67%), while making opponents struggle in that area (48%).
Michigan has balanced scoring, but it's led by its frontcourt.
Yaxel Lendeborg is coming off a monster 26-point, 12-rebound performance, and he's looking to do his damage going to the rim, where he shoots 64-of-92 (69.6%) on the season.
Morez Johnson Jr. is really good at cutting and flashing to the ball on offense, while shooting 73% when he does so.
Michigan's frontcourt should have a productive game utilizing Lendeborg and Johnson, while using high-low action with Aday Mara.
Penn State vs. Michigan Betting Analysis
As good as Michigan is at defending, the one area where it's graded as "average" (via Synergy) is guarding the ball handler off the pick-and-roll.
Dilione scored five times against Michigan as the ball handler in the first matchup, and Mingo didn't even play (and that's also his strength).
Though Michigan is the superior team, I think this is too many points.
We've seen Michigan dominate teams and take its foot off the gas, allowing the final score line to look better than it actually was.
I think we get that type of situation in this one, where Michigan is up by 30 and takes its foot off the gas and wins by 20.
My Pick: Penn State +25.5
