The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, IL. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on BTN.
Purdue is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Northwestern predictions and college basketball picks for March 4, 2026.
Purdue vs Northwestern Prediction
My Pick: Over 147.5
My Purdue vs Northwestern best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs. Northwestern Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
- Purdue vs Northwestern spread: Purdue -9
- Purdue vs Northwestern over/under: 147.5 points
- Purdue vs Northwestern moneyline: Purdue -550, Northwestern +400
Purdue vs Northwestern College Basketball Betting Preview
Purdue Basketball
Purdue has been sliding of late, losing three out of its last four games while coming into this matchup 22-7 overall and 12-6 in Big Ten play.
When the Boilermakers have lost this season, it's been apparent why. They struggle to defend.
In their last four games, they're the fourth most efficient offense in the country and the 164th most efficient defense in the country due to giving up a 60.7% effective field goal percentage (353rd).
To further deep dive into their defensive struggles, the Boilermakers rank 305th in defensive free-throw rate, 341st in 2-point defense and 319th in 3-point defense.
What makes this team so good, though, is its ability to create and knock down spot-up shots. Almost a quarter of the Boilermakers' offensive possessions result in a spot-up shot and on those attempts, Purdue averages 1.197 points per possession, ranking it in the 99th percentile.
As a team this season, the Boilermakers are 13th in the country from 3-point range, shooting 38.3% from deep. Out of their 712 attempts from deep this season, 399 of them have been off of spot up 3s, where they're shooting a ridiculous 41.6%.
He doesn't do it often since the ball is always in his hands, but Braden Smith is by far the best spot-up shooter on the team, hitting 23-of-37 (62.2%) on spot-up 3s.
Northwestern Basketball
Northwestern comes into this one as winners of three straight, with an overall record of 13-16 and 5-13 in the Big Ten.
During this three-game winning streak, the Wildcats have done a good job of turning teams over on defense, forcing a defensive turnover rate of 21.5% while shooting 44% from 3 on the offensive side of the ball.
The Wildcats have been solid all season when it comes to forcing turnovers, but it's their 3-point shooting that has been relied upon in two of the three wins. Even with the hot shooting over Maryland and Indiana, Northwestern hits 32.3% from 3 on the season, ranking them 265th in the country.
Nick Martinelli continues to have the offense played through him, and over the three-game win streak he's done a great job in being efficient, drilling 52% on 18.6 shots per game.
Chris Collins keeps it simple on the offensive end: clear out one side of the court and have Martinelli post up his defender to go one-on-one. Not only does that allow Martinelli to get an efficient look, but it also allows him to facilitate more, leading to easier shots for his teammates.
In the last three games, Martinelli has had three or more assists, including a season-high seven in the win against Oregon. In the previous 26 games, he had three or more assists in only two outings.
Purdue vs. Northwestern Betting Analysis
Purdue is 1-3 in its last four games but it still has the second-best offensive efficiency in the country and is playing one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten.
The last time Purdue played a bottom-five Big 10 defense (Indiana), it shot 65% from the field and 56% from deep.
The Wildcats have had their shortcomings offensively this season, but they've shot it well as of late and will continue to lean on Martinelli's playmaking ability out of his isolation post-ups.
Though it's struggled to shoot it well from deep consistently, Northwestern shot a combined 53% from 3 in its wins over Maryland and Indiana.
With a Purdue defense that's in the bottom five in 2-point and 3-point defense coming to town, I expect Northwestern to continue to be the efficient offense it's been during its winning streak.
My Pick: Over 147.5
