The San Jose State Spartans take on the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is set for 11:00 p.m. EST on Fox Sports 1.
UNLV is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here’s my San Jose State vs. UNLV prediction and college basketball picks for February 11, 2026.
San Jose State vs UNLV Prediction
My Pick: San Jose State +12 or Better
My San Jose State vs UNLV best bet is on the Spartans to cover. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
San Jose State vs. UNLV Odds
| San Jose St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
- San Jose State vs UNLV spread: UNLV -12.5
- San Jose State vs UNLV over/under: 151.5
- San Jose State vs UNLV moneyline: San Jose St +575, UNLV -850
- San Jose State vs UNLV best bet: San Jose State +12 or Better
San Jose State vs UNLV College Basketball Betting Preview
I project the Rebels as nine-point home favorites in this Mountain West duel, so I’m willing to bet the Spartans at +12 or better, representing a three-point difference between my projections and the market.
UNLV beat up on the Spartans in San Jose last month, winning 76-62. However, the Rebels shot a scorching 11-for-23 (48%) from 3, and any amount of shooting regression likely results in a single-digit ballgame — ShotQuality graded that game as a six-point UNLV win based on the “quality” of shots taken by both teams.
Additionally, this is an obvious sandwich spot for the Rebels, who just pulled off a big upset win over Grand Canyon on Saturday and might be looking ahead to a big road showdown with Boise State on Friday.
It’s worth mentioning that UNLV has been one of the most inconsistent teams nationally this season, ranking 332nd in Haslametrics’ Consistency factor. It would be very Rebel-like to play down to the 6-17 Spartans at home in this spot.
Schematically, I don’t trust the Rebels’ ball-screen coverage (.88 PPP allowed, 15th percentile) against San Jose State’s PNR-heavy attack. Meanwhile, UNLV is isolation-heavy, and the Spartans are an above-average ISO defense (.79 PPP allowed, 56th percentile).
I could see UNLV looking sluggish on Tuesday. I also think this is a tough matchup for the Rebels, who could find themselves in a dog-fight if they don’t piece together another anomalous shooting performance.
It's worth mentioning the injury report. San Jose State has been banged up for most of the year, and you never really know who is going to suit up for the Spartans on any given day. If Jermaine Washington comes back for this game, that would be a massive boost to this bet.
My Pick: San Jose State +12 or Better
