The Texas Longhorns take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Alabama is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 178.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Alabama prediction and college basketball picks for January 10, 2026.
Texas vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Alabama -12.5 (Play to -14)
My Texas vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs. Alabama Odds, Spread
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 178.5 -105o / -115u | +570 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 178.5 -105o / -115u | -850 |
- Texas vs Alabama spread: Alabama -11.5
- Texas vs Alabama over/under: 178.5 points
- Texas vs Alabama moneyline: Texas +570, Alabama -850
Texas vs Alabama NCAAB Betting Preview
Texas Basketball
A high-profile change on the sideline hasn't led to much on-court progress thus far. Texas moved on from Rodney Terry this offseason and handed the keys to Sean Miller, but early returns haven't delivered measurably different success.
Texas is 0-2 in SEC play and just 1-4 in games that mattered during non-conference action, with the lone quality win coming against NC State in Maui. For a roster with scoring talent and experience, the results have been underwhelming.
Offensively, the Longhorns have mostly adopted a “my turn, your turn” approach; to their credit, it's mostly worked. The Longhorns sit just 319th nationally in assist rate, per KenPom, but they have enough individual creators to make that survivable.
Dailyn Swain, Tramon Mark, Simeon Wilcher and Jordan Pope can all generate offense off the bounce, and sophomore big man Matas Vokietaitis provides a legitimate interior release valve.
Vokietaitis has been a magnet for contact, leading the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, and that feeds directly into Texas’s biggest strength: getting to the line.
The Longhorns rank second nationally in free-throw rate and often rely on the whistle to stabilize possessions when the half-court offense bogs down.
The glaring problem is on the other end. Texas simply can't string together defensive stops. In seven games against power-conference opponents, the Longhorns have allowed between 1.07 and 1.33 points per possession — exposing a group that fattened up on sub-300 buy games.
They sorely lack a true rim protector, which forces drop coverage as the primary defense. Swain is the only standout individual defender, so coverage is generally soft.
Texas also doesn't force turnovers, meaning teams usually get a clean look every trip.
Against elite offenses, Texas’ margin for error is razor-thin.
Alabama Basketball
Alabama returns home from a challenging mid-week loss to Vanderbilt as arguably the most battle-tested team in the country. The Crimson Tide have played the toughest strength of schedule nationally, per KenPom, and there’s real value in how many high-level environments this group has already survived.
The Wednesday result may have been different had All-American candidate Labaron Philon Jr. not been forced to leave the game with cramps. The Tide’s offense couldn't quite keep up without the star.
The blueprint under Nate Oats remains crystal clear. Alabama wants to spread the floor, push tempo, protect the ball and generate high-quality 3-point attempts. The Tide rank second nationally in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom, and nearly every rotation player has a bright green light from deep.
The spacing is elite, the guard group is healthy (assuming Philon hydrates) and the ball rarely sticks.
Philon is the headliner, but he's surrounded by firepower in the backcourt. Aden Holloway can scorch nets in a hurry, Latrell Wrightsell looks fully healthy again, and Amari Allen has emerged as a legitimate pro prospect with his versatile 3/4 skill set.
Jalil Bethea provides instant scoring pop off the bench, while veteran Houston Mallette does a little bit of everything.
The concerns come inside. Alabama is vulnerable in the paint, especially with Aiden Sherrell banged up (missed the Vandy game). Taylor Bol Bowen has struggled to control the glass, and the Keitenn Bristow/Noah Williamson minutes can be matchup-dependent at best.
That interior softness spills into the defensive end, where Alabama already lives dangerously.
The Tide almost never force turnovers (338th nationally), and without Sherrell’s rim protection, the basket is far more accessible.
Texas vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
With two offenses that significantly outpace their defensive counterparts, this should be a highly efficient affair.
Add in Alabama’s turbo pace and Texas’ willingness to go at the speed of its opponent (seven games of 72+ possessions), and this could be a “first to 100” type of contest. Enjoy the fireworks!
Of course, that doesn't automatically make the over a viable wager, as the number is predictably sky-high.
I do expect the tempo to exceed KenPom’s projection of 74 possessions; the Tide have played seven regulation games of 78+ possessions already, and Texas has displayed some clear “pace taker” tendencies already this season.
From a side perspective, Alabama looms as a motivated buy-low favorite off a loss. Covering the spread gets easier with the high-volume of efficient possessions likely to be present here, and I do lean hard towards the Tide with Philon back in the lineup.
The Alabama guards should have a field day against a poor defensive backcourt.
That forces me to decide between the favorite and the over. I'm skeptical enough of Texas’ offense that I will eschew the total and instead back a Tide squad that should be angry to reassert themselves as a true SEC title threat.
Over the last three years, Oats’ teams are 16-10-1 against the spread off a loss, covering by an average of 4.7 points per game.
That data point is enough to push me over the edge and lay it with the Tide, up to -14.
My Pick: Alabama -12.5 (Play to -14)
