You don’t have to wait for the Big Dance to start profiting off Cinderella stories. Conference tournaments are tipping off across the country this week, and there are a few low-major teams that deserve your attention.
We’ll start with the most exciting team in Minnesota — spoiler: it’s not the Golden Gophers — and then head down to the Palmetto State to examine a long shot that has all the goods to cut down the nets this weekend.
Let's dive into my college basketball predictions and my NCAAB picks for the Summit League Tournament and Southern Conference Tournament.
College Basketball Predictions, Picks
St. Thomas to Win Summit League Tournament (+135)
The Tommies are a fun story and an incredible watch. The program made the unprecedented jump from the Division III ranks to Division I in 2021, and slowly but surely, they’ve found their way.
A big reason for their success has been their unconventional head coach. Dr. John Tauer, the Tommies’ head coach of 15 years, holds a PhD in social psychology and is a tenured professor.
A true master of motivation, Tauer has improved on his win total for three straight seasons while building one of the most lethal offenses in low-major basketball.
Tauer’s attack isn’t centered around one blue-chip recruit, but rather Princeton offense principles.
The Tommies hunt for good shots, and when they find space, they knock them down. They lead the country in 2-point shooting accuracy (63.9%) and feature seven shooters in their rotation that bury triples at a 35% clip or better.
Guards Nick Janowski and Nolan Minessale average 37 points per game as a tandem, providing stability to Tauer’s attack.
The wild card has been power forward Carter Bjerke. He’s channeled his inner Kevin Pittsnogle on multiple occasions this year, knocking down seven and 10 3-pointers in separate games in the month of February alone.
St. Thomas split with North Dakota State during the regular season but gave the Bison all they could handle at their place in a three-point defeat.
The two teams will be on a collision course to meet on Sunday in the Summit League title game in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. That game would likely go off as a pick'em, so grabbing the Tommies at plus-money today is the way to go.
Pick: St. Thomas to Win Summit League Tournament (+135 · DraftKings)
Wofford to Win Southern Conference Tournament (+800)
From one tournament co-favorite to a trendy upset pick. The Terriers may be priced like a dark horse, but they actually drew the 2-seed in the SoCon tournament. And when you flip through their résumé, it’s easy to see their upside.
Wofford knocked off all its top conference competition this season, handing East Tennessee State, Mercer and Samford regular-season losses.
And three of their late-season losses in SoCon play came with Kahmare Holmes sidelined due to injury. Holmes was not only the Terriers’ leading scorer (19.3 PPG), but he was invaluable as a rebounder (5.6 RPG).
With the team now back at full strength and an ideal draw in the bracket, Kevin Giltner has a chance to lead Wofford to the SoCon’s automatic bid for the second straight season.
The Terriers won the conference title last year as a six-seed. This time around, as a two-seed, they’re a virtual lock to make the semifinals because they won’t beat themselves.
Wofford has one of the lowest turnover rates in the sport and, according to Haslametrics, they were the 10th-best road team in low-major basketball.
An elite road team that doesn’t beat itself and has last year’s title run fresh on its mind? That’s a lot of positives stacking up to go along with an 8-1 ticket.
Pick: Wofford to Win Southern Conference Tournament (+800 · DraftKings)
