The Toledo Rockets take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan State is favored by -23 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for December 16, 2025.
Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Over 151.5 (Play to 154)
My Toledo vs Michigan State best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Toledo vs. Michigan State Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23 -110 | 151.5 -110 / -110 | +2500 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23 -110 | 151.5 -110 / -110 | -10000 |
- Toledo vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -23
- Toledo vs Michigan State over/under: 151.5 points
- Toledo vs Michigan State moneyline: Toledo +2500, Michigan State -10000
Toledo vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Toledo Basketball
Toledo comes in having lost three straight games against Division I competition, as the Rockets have really struggled to defend effectively during the last several weeks.
Belmont was able to get to the rim whenever it wanted against the Rockets and both Oakland and Robert Morris shot 60% from inside the arc.
The main reason for the defensive issues is the Rockets aren't strong on the interior.
Also, they don't have a deep bench, routinely playing just seven or eight players. Their depth will be something to watch against Sparty on Tuesday.
On offense, Tod Kowalczyk has his team shooting poorly from 3-point range, but the Rockets do have scorers at all five positions on the floor and can create some favorable matchups with their unique offense.
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State has put together an impressive campaign so far, with its only loss coming at the hands of Duke in a game Sparty led with six minutes to go.
Michigan State also avoided a major letdown spot when it went on the road to defeat Penn State behind a career-high 23 points from Divine Ugochukwu, who was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time.
The Spartans have won games this season by controlling the final 10 minutes with their defense. They also held nine of their first 10 opponents to less than 70 points.
The defense was a bit disjointed against Penn State, but I would expect a little more cohesiveness from the Spartans in this one, especially given the recent changes to the starting lineup.
Toledo vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
This game opened Michigan State -22.5 with a total set at 151.5 points.
I like the over in this matchup.
Toledo isn't a good defensive basketball team, as the Rockets come into this one ranked 342nd nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage.
The Rockets allow a high number of second-chance opportunities and could get eaten alive at the rim by Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler.
With the recent switch to Ugochukwu at shooting guard, the Spartans are going to have to retool their rotation to find more time for Kur Teng and Trey Fort.
I would imagine these two play with a chip on their shoulder after being relegated to the bench, and I would expect to see them play a clean offensive game against Toledo.
Toledo has five players averaging double figures in scoring this season, including Sonny Wilson, Sean Craig and Leroy Blyden Jr. All three are capable of going off for 25 points at any given time, and the Rockets share the basketball and play well as a team.
We saw Michigan State struggle to put Penn State away last time out, and I wonder if retooling the roster took its toll on the defense — the Spartans allowed Penn State to score 72 points, the first time this season they've allowed 70 or more.
Given the physical nature of the last two contests against Penn State and Duke, I would expect Tom Izzo to let these guys run a bit with Toledo in this matchup.
With Oakland and Cornell on deck — both of which want to get up and down — we could see Michigan State push the tempo a bit.
We should see the Spartans eclipse 90 points — at a minimum — and I would expect Toledo to get into the mid-60s or higher. Thus, I'll call for this one to go over the posted total.
My Pick: Over 151.5 (Play to 154)
