The USC Trojans take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Michigan State is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my USC vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for January 5, 2026.
USC vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State -10 (Play to -11.5)
My USC vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USC vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- USC vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -10.5
- USC vs Michigan State over/under: 150.5 points
- USC vs Michigan State moneyline: USC +450, Michigan State -600
USC vs Michigan State NCAAB Betting Preview
USC Basketball
You have to feel for USC. The Trojans went to Ann Arbor and lost by 30, which makes them look bad, but everyone loses to Michigan by 30+.
However, I'm still a bit unsure about whether USC can beat top-25 caliber teams. The two best wins on the Trojans' schedule are victories in Maui over Seton Hall and Boise State, a pair of fringe tournament teams.
USC has dealt with a rash of injuries, starting with five-star guard Alijah Arenas and stud point guard Rodney Rice. All the injuries have decimated the Trojans' backcourt to the point of starting Chad Baker-Mazara at point guard.
Baker-Mazara has to show up in this road battle. The 25-year-old guard leads USC with 20.4 points and 3.1 assists per game, with his elite iso stepback 3 sitting in his back pocket. He's one of the top isolation scorers in the country, so he shoulders a lot of responsibility.
Eric Musselman will look for USC to control the game in two ways. For one, he wants his Trojans to push the pace, as they sit 43rd in adjusted tempo.
Musselman will try to find ways for the Trojans to use their nation-leading 53% FTA/FGA number to steal free points. That'll be tough since Michigan State is well-coached and seldom fouls, but USC needs to get easy points.
Most of the foul shots come from Baker-Mazara and big man Ezra Ausar, who ranks fifth nationally in free-throw rate. Ausar reached the foul line 13 times against Michigan, and if he can do that against the Wolverines' bigs, he can do it against anyone.
Defensively, USC has some warts. It struggles to defend the rim, as opponents shoot 50% on 2s (126th nationally). Another issue is protecting the glass, as it ranks 239th in defensive rebounding rate.
Both of those issues will have to be addressed to beat a Tom Izzo team.
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State picked up its second loss of the season in its most-recent game, losing to Nebraska in Lincoln. The Spartans notched just 0.87 PPP and failed to do anything in the second half. Michigan State also struggled offensively in the Duke loss, scoring 60 points on 0.93 PPP.
When you think of Izzo-coached teams, what comes to mind? Likely, rebounding and defense. Very few recent Michigan State squads represent what Izzo wants more than this squad.
The Spartans rank fifth in defensive efficiency, while limiting teams to 45.2% shooting on 2s. That dominance on shots close to the hoop forces teams to launch from deep, which is why Michigan State's defense allows teams to shoot 3s 47% of the time.
The biggest advantage in this game for the Spartans is rebounding. They hold teams to a 22% offensive rebound rate, while grabbing 40% of their own misses. Rebounding is one of the bigger swing stats, and Michigan State should crush USC on the boards.
Michigan State doesn't have the roster to be much better than 58th in offensive efficiency. The shooting isn't there, but the Spartans are opportunistic. That's why a team with two shooters (Jaxon Kohler and Kur Teng) can hit 36% from deep.
Also, keep an eye on Jeremy Fears Jr. and his passing. He's one of the top point guards in America, dishing 9.2 assists per game. Fears and his passing savvy help keep Michigan State's offense above water.
USC vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
I view Michigan State as a terrible matchup for USC and this feels like a game the Trojans lose by double-digits.
USC will get pummeled on the boards, and that feeds right into Michigan State's hands. The trio of Carson Cooper, Kohler and the ultra-athletic Coen Carr will dominate on the boards.
The Trojans are too limited in what they need to happen to compete with or beat Michigan State. Baker-Mazara has to score 20+ points, and USC has to push the tempo.
Neither will come easy against Izzo.
My Pick: Michigan State -10 (Play to -11.5)
