The USC Trojans take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan is favored by 22.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4500. The total is set at 169.5 points.
Here’s my USC vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for January 2, 2026.
USC vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -22.5 (Play to -25)
My USC vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USC vs. Michigan Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -112 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | +1700 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -108 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | -4500 |
- USC vs Michigan spread: Michigan -22.5
- USC vs Michigan over/under: 169.5 points
- USC vs Michigan moneyline: USC +1700, Michigan -4500
USC vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
USC Basketball
USC has enjoyed a solid start to the season, sitting 11-1 overall and 1-1 in Big Ten action. However, the Trojans have only played two top-50 opponents, beating Seton Hall and losing to Washington.
The contrast in facing two fringe tournament teams and one on a historical pace of dominance is a stark one.
USC has no depth due to injury issues. Freshman Alijah Arenas has yet to play this season, while starting point guard Rodney Rice suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Lastly, rotational wing Amarion Dickerson is the latest wounded Trojan, so we'll see if he suits up here.
In totality, USC is down to just four healthy guards. The well-traveled Chad Baker-Mazara is now playing the lead guard spot. The 25-year-old wing leads USC with 21 points, while adding 5.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He'll need to use his Final Four pedigree to guide the Trojans to a cover here.
Outside of Baker-Mazara, the guard play is a real problem. Ryan Cornish drew the start in the last two games for USC. That's probably a bad thing, though. Cornish can shoot, but he lacks the physicality to battle Michigan. The other options are flawed in their own right.
Jordan Marsh will struggle against Michigan's length. He's really small at 5-foot-11, 146 pounds, and won't do well in this matchup. Kam Woods came to USC mid-season, and he's played just one game. Lastly, Jerry Easter is just too green to contribute in a matchup like this.
The Trojans are 38th in offensive efficiency, but their biggest strength is using their length to draw fouls. They rank first nationally in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric.
Defensively, USC allows teams to shoot 48.7% on 2s (89th nationally), while holding teams to 29.4% from deep (34th nationally). However, they rank 242nd in defensive rebound rate.
If the Trojans want to cover or have any shot at upsetting Michigan, they have to protect the glass.
Michigan Basketball
Michigan is doing some pretty unheard-of things. The Wolverines extended their streak of covering games to nine points in their 41-point drubbing of McNeese. In that time, they won each game by 18+ points and covered easily in all but the Maryland game.
Does something to give? Maybe, but Michigan is by far the best team in America.
The Wolverines' defense is close to impossible to score on inside. They have the top defense in America and hold teams to a terrible 38.7% shooting percentage on 2s. Plus, Michigan holds teams to 29.5% from 3 and also ranks in the top 40 in defensive rebound rate and FTA/FGA.
I hate to say a team has to get lucky to score on Michigan, but that's the easiest way to describe it.
Michigan has such imposing positional length. Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. start at the three and four at 6-foot-9, 240 and 250 pounds, respectively.
Yes, Michigan is playing a "wing" that big, and he also has guard skills. Plus, if somehow a guard or big man gets to the rim, the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara is there to serve as a deterrent.
The Wolverines are no slouches offensively, either. They rank fifth in defensive efficiency and lead the country with a 61% effective field goal percentage while shooting 65% from inside the arc.
You'd expect a team with that much size to struggle from 3, right? Wrong. Michigan also shoots 38% from deep.
And just for good measure, Michigan plays at the seventh-fastest pace in America, which is why it posts such absurd victory margins. Teams can't keep up with the pace and physicality that the Wolverines play with.
USC vs. Michigan Betting Analysis
You always want to find the proper time to fade a team this dominant, but I have no reason to fade Michigan.
USC wants to live at the free-throw line, but Michigan won't let that happen.
I'd be stunned if USC can score more than 65 points here. With the lack of depth, shooting and a true point guard, Dusty May must be licking his chops to demolish another team by 30+ points.
My Pick: Michigan -22.5 (Play to -25)
