The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Louisville is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -162. The total is set at 154.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Louisville prediction and college basketball picks for January 13, 2026.
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: Louisville ML -162
My Virginia vs Louisville best bet is on the Cardinals to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs. Louisville Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 154.5 -112 / -108 | +136 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 154.5 -112 / -108 | -162 |
- Virginia vs Louisville spread: Louisville -3.5
- Virginia vs Louisville over/under: 154.5 points
- Virginia vs Louisville moneyline: Virginia +136, Louisville -162
Virginia vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
Virginia Basketball
Virginia enters Tuesday’s contest in scorching form, having won nine of its past 10 games, including a 15-point victory over Stanford this past Saturday.
In Ryan Odom’s first year at the helm, the Hoos have reconstructed the slow-paced, defensive-minded style of play that characterized Virginia basketball over Tony Bennett’s 15-year tenure in Charlottesville.
Odom previously implemented a very successful offensive philosophy during his time as head coach for VCU, Utah State and UMBC. In his first two months at Virginia, Odom’s offense ranks in the top-20 nationally in offensive efficiency, averaging over 85 points per game.
This new-look Virginia offense is led by 6-foot-9 true freshman Thijs De Ridder. The Belgian forward is averaging over 16 points and six rebounds per game. At 240 pounds, De Ridder has been an unstoppable presence in Virginia’s frontcourt on both sides of the ball.
The freshman is shooting over 40% from beyond the arc, leading an offense that ranks 25th in the nation in 3-point shooting.
The Cavaliers also rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency, mostly thanks to frontcourt depth.
7-footer Johann Grunloh is a menace in Virginia’s frontcourt, blocking 2.5 shots per game, good for 15th nationally. Fellow 7-footer Ugonna Onyenso is averaging 2.7 blocks in just 17 minutes per game.
They’ve started 3-1 in ACC play, but the Cavaliers will be tested this month, as they hit the road for four of their next five games.
Louisville Basketball
After an extremely impressive start to Pat Kelsey’s second season as Louisville’s head coach, the Cardinals have hit a wall, losing two of their past three games.
Kelsey’s bunch is led by freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who most scouts project to be a top-five selection in the 2026 NBA Draft.
The freshman superstar began his collegiate campaign with a bang, scoring over 18 points in five of his first 10 games.
However, therein lies the problem, as he’s only played in 10 of the team’s first 16 games.
In Brown’s absence, former Xavier guard Ryan Conwell has been superb, racking up 20 points per game for a depleted Cardinals squad desperate for offensive production.
Heading into the 2026 season, I was extremely high on the potential of Kelsey’s new-look Louisville roster oozing with talent. Still, I've grown very concerned with this team, in large part due to the uncertainty surrounding Brown’s absence.
In what was initially reported as a lower-back injury that occurred in the second half of a dominant win over Memphis, some close to the program have speculated that the future NBA star may be sitting out to avoid further aggravation of an injury that could impact his draft stock.
While the Cardinals have dropped three of their past five games, they still rank 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency, scoring over 88 points per game through the first two months of the season.
While the Brown saga has drawn concern about the future of Kelsey’s roster, there remains light at the end of the tunnel, given the scoring production of Conwell and the two-way effectiveness of 6-foot-11 forward Sananda Fru.
Louisville’s offense is best characterized by its ability to convert from beyond the arc. Over 52% of the Cardinals’ field goal attempts have been from 3-point range, which ranks second nationally.
With the recent addition of 6-foot-3 guard London Johnson — a story that's drawn substantial attention given his unprecedented experience playing in the G League — I'm still very optimistic about a Louisville team that has Final Four upside at full strength.
Virginia vs. Louisville Betting Analysis
Tuesday’s ACC showdown has sizable implications for the Cardinals, as a 2-2 start to their conference schedule has dwindled their NCAA Tournament resume.
In a matchup featuring two offenses that love to run and gun, I expect an extremely up-tempo contest with a ton of scoring.
The biggest storyline will be whether Brown is able to suit up.
While Virginia enters the contest red hot offensively, Odom’s bunch has played three of its first four conference games in the comfort of its home arena.
I expect the Hoos’ first real ACC road trip to be an extremely difficult test, especially when matched up with a Louisville team that can match their offensive firepower.
The Cardinals have their backs against the wall and are desperate for a conference victory to improve to 3-2 in the ACC.
If Brown plays, I expect Louisville to pull away late and prevail in a closely-contested matchup.
It’s Louisville or pass.
My Pick: Louisville ML -162
