Texas St vs. San Diego St Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

@Breese https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bboc-6th-gear-cfb-week-5/id1579379256?i=1000792322154

Major concerns with this SDSU offense now that Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard are banged up. The passing game hasn’t taken a step forward, and with them one-dimensional, Texas State can get off the field regularly.  Usually I downgrade TSU on the road a bit. Their defense in particular was ghastly on the road last season, but here’s the crazy part about the Bobs. Brad Jackson is even better away from home than he is in San Marcos. That’s a rarity, and something I can hang my hat on now that they have the perfect supporting cast around him.  Two quality runners in Burgess and Jackson, Beau Sparks is healthy again, this team is humming with 112 points in the last two weeks. Perfect San Diego weather high 70s, no wind. Brad Jackson will be dealing.  And once the Bobs have a lead, Jayden Denegal is going to get heated up. He’s one of the least accurate passers in CFB when blitzed, sub-40% completions, no touchdowns 5.8 yards per attempt. They blitzed Owen McCown 45% of the time a few weeks back and I know Will Windham will find a way to rattle Denegal. Texas State has faced Arch Manning, Owen McCown and Trayven Jackson, so their pass metrics look horrific. But I refuse to buy into SDSU’s offense if it’s resting on Denegal’s shoulders. And this Aztec defense got abused by Toledo. Nearly 300 for Jon Alan Richter and 210 yards on the ground for the Rockets. Copy and paste, Bobs, go get me 45 points and turn Denegal over when he makes a few boneheaded decisions under pressure and we cover this thing.