DK alt win total parlay. UConn under 6.5 + Cincinnati under 6.5. +151

DK alt win total parlay. UConn under 7.5 + Cincinnati under 6.5

I want to fade UNT on the win total this year. Will be a completely different team this year with a tough opening schedule. I like pairing up this one with Rutgers under 6.5. Essentially getting 2 full wins off as Rutgers is pegged 4.5 nearly everywhere. If either of these teams wins 7 games I’ll be completely stunned but there is virtually zero path for Rutgers to do so. Decent vig here pairing these together and two teams I project to struggle badly this season.

FanDuel

Caesars. Analysis on Twitter. Please review and like/share. Action Network CFB offseason content coming!

FD. Analysis on Twitter and soon to be in the Action App.

Bet placed at CZR. Win total article up for the ACC on May 1st in the app.

I like the price here. Brutal 3-game stretch to open league play, I think 5 of the last 6 are games Iowa could lose. QB and Offensive line situations are not what they have been although could develop. This is an important hook as I think the number is 6-6 or 7.5 here but I expect a small step back from Iowa in 2026.

I do not like the schedule for GATA this year. 3 tough non conference games + my top 5 projected finishers in the SBC. Not sure qb was upgraded and the DUDE rb is gone. Top 3 WR gone. Defense still likely to be atrocious. Coastal improved. Appy improved. Marshall improved. I like this one under the win total. No need to shop the price. I already did. Far and away best number and odds at MGM.

**have to bet this one at MGM the Pac12 is doing a “flex schedule” where all teams will play a 12th game against another conference opponent but those matchups are TBD. Some books have a win total out on these P12 teams but the number is only factoring the first 11 scheduled games and it is clearly marketed as such in the menu. MGM IS FACTORING this 12th game in the RSW decision, so you have to bet this one at MGM. You get the extra game which is a huge advantage. I project Fresno State at 6.25 wins BEFORE getting the 12th opponent announced, and have the Bulldogs favored in 6 games, a tiny dog in 4 games and big underdogs in the opener against USC (Fres ssn opener, USC will have played a game already) I am betting this one over 5.5 at MGM, where all 12 games will count toward getting over this number, as opposed to everyone else who is factoring just the first 11 games. Good luck everyone!

BBOC offseason part 1 pod release play.

BBOC POD play. Still ok at -190. **have to bet this one at MGM due to house rules. MGM factoring all 12 games for P12 RSW. Others only factoring 11 games due to the weird scheduling with the flex game. Team likely vying for a bowl game at the end and could end up playing weaker Oregon State twice, the 2nd meeting as part of the flex arrangement.

Very tough schedule + early ssn roady at Minnesota. Not sold on QB being a consistent passer. OL/DL a patchwork operation and brutal 6-game stretch to open sec play makes it tough to see MSU getting on a roll this year. I have these guys favored in 2-3 games meaning 3 real upsets would need to be pulled if they are to exceed this win total. This is an alt win total. Reg odds are 4.5 -115, so paying 65c for a full win (I value a half win at 50-60 cents) available at DK. MSU 1-7 in conference play last year and hasn’t won a conference road game outside of Fayetteville AR in 4-years. Hogs not on the slate this year nor is Kentucky.

I project 7.2, but the Non-con provides some unique challenges. At Michigan, At rice (unique scheme, long trip with unusual travel), and hosting Boise State before hitting MAC play. Toughest Mac schedule per my metrics. We know these guys are a fun team, but the front seven on defense carried Western Michigan in so many games last year, and everybody had a year to see what they were trying to do offensively. Western Michigan is going to have to score so many more points in their games this year and the quarterback is going to have to throw the ball with much more regularity. WMU held eight Mac opponents under 21.5 points last season and I just don’t think we’re going to get that type of defensive play this year. Three of the first four Mac games are on the road, including Central, Michigan, and Toledo back to back. I think we’re gettin a good price here based on the final results of last season and WMU winning the MAC. There were some major concerns. this team had no business defeating Toledo. They were locked in a 7-3 game with UMASS deep into the 3rd Q Trailed by a touch in the 4th against CMU Trailed in the 4th Q against Ohio Struggled badly with lowly NIU Gave up 500 yards to EMU, won primarily due to turnovers I still think this can be kind of a fun team, but I think regression is coming and you are getting an overinflated number. UNDER

Alt win total. Better bet given the VIG

Note: this resolves after 11 games. The “flex” game at the end does not factor. Per house rules at DK. ** NOTE: this bet MUST be placed at DK. Other outlets are factoring the 12th game which is a P12 “flex” game. DK is resolving these RSW on an 11 game schedule.

Adding to position.

I worry about the quarterback health with a depleted offensive line, there are a lot of missing pieces in the receiver room from last season this team is not overly powerful away from home, they are weaker at all three levels of the defense. Project losses at Stanford, hosting Vegas, at wyo, at ASU, i’m guessing Hawaii will either lose at Nevada or while hosting New Mexico or North Dakota state 7-5 is the number on these guys. I don’t trust Micah to stay healthy.

Team is really going to struggle. Four of the first five games are on the road, the only assured win in that stretch is Mercyhurst. 19 of the top 21 tackles from last season depart, four of the top five receivers depart, the top three rushers depart, I think there 7 games they could lose and it might be a struggle qualifying for a bowl game. The run defense continues to be absolute garbage, and they faded down the stretch so badly last season.

I am walking this one in early, but you will have to tune into the Action network, Sunbelt Preview with Stuckey, Calabrese and myself for the full rundown. DK alt line under 6.5.

AAC pod play. Really like this team. 2-2 or 3-1 Non con very possible 4th easiest AAC schedule draw per metrics. Really like the QB/RB/ backfield combo. Great schedule draw getting all 3 option teams right in a row.

AAC pod play. You’ll enjoy the episode tomorrow.

CONFERENCE WINS ONLY Not regular season wins. Conference wins only.