Michael Calabrese

Michael Calabrese

Michael Calabrese
College Football, College Basketball
Role
Sports Betting Analyst
Experience
20 years
Location
The Maine Line, PA
Total Bets
2.9K
Followers
38.2K

Mike Calabrese's Picks

Today
Pending
So this year I thought the Blue Hens would have a quality CUSA defense and if they were lucky they’d be able to muck games up. Well, the offense is cooking with Minicucci at the helm. 2nd in Conference USA in scoring and total offense. Great balance as well, Jo’Nathan Silver is averaging over 7 yards per carry, and Minicucci has 12 TDs against 2 turnovers. He should get Jake Thaw back as his number one target, he’s a nice reliable safety blanket. The big piece for UDel is blocking up the Hilltoppers. Their calling card is their front seven. 28 TFLs already this season, and a very active secondary leading CUSA in pass defended. But I’ve seen enough from Delaware, 50th in HAVOC avoidance, I trust Minicucci who even threw for 300+ on Colorado. He has gritty playmaker written all over him. Defensively, the step up in competition has been hard on the Hens. 112th in Total D, just one takeaway per game and they can’t get to the quarterback at all. 118th in pass rush per PFF, and giving Maverick McIvor a clean pocket is asking for trouble. On 30% of his snaps this season, Maverick has been under fire. The resutls are 0 TDs, a 47% completion percentage. Yuck. In a clean pocket, which accounts for 70% of his dropbacks, he’s a maestro. 80.7% adjusted completion percentage, 11 TDs to 2 INTs and 10 big time throws. Both of these QBs can sling it, and I think we’re ready for an old school weeknight shootout in the CUSA. Last week almost 900 yards of total offense between WKU and MO State, game started with 5 straight punts, then they pumped in 49 points in 3 quarters. A faster start and we’ll get this over.
42
5
Alternate uniforms are 🔥, just a pure vibes play for some couch change
8
3
2-WAY PARLAY+341
0.29u
We’re getting a travel discount on Western going from Springfield, MO to Newark, DE in back to back weeks. But this Tyson Helton’s seventh year as a HC, he knows travel routines, how to avoid traps, and Delaware has played so well they have everyone’s attention in the CUSA. Last year they beat Sam Houston outright as a dog, covered at Boston College as a dog. I like Helton as a grown up to have them playing their best here. But it’s all about Maverick and Bowie against an average defense. Offense isn’t as down as some of the point totals would indicate. They settled for a FG at the Missouri State 1 yard line. And executed a game clinching four minute offense late. A slow start against Nevada ended with three TDs drives in their final four possessions. They just need a quick start against UDel, who btw is 108th in 1st Qtr scoring defense. Teams get off to hot start against them.
WKU +126
WKU
WKU Team Abbreviation@DEL Team Abbreviation
DEL
10/03 11:00 PM
Over 61.5-105
WKU
WKU Team Abbreviation@DEL Team Abbreviation
DEL
10/03 11:00 PM
11
3
SJSU -2.5-110
UNM
UNM Team Abbreviation@SJSU Team Abbreviation
SJSU
1.25u
10/04 2:00 AM
San Jose State is four points away from being 3-1 instead of 1-3. The offense can really cook with Eget slinging it around the yard. They’ve found replacements, in the aggregate for Nick Nash. With a veteran coach like Ken Niumatalolo, he can sell this locker room on them being 0-0 in conference play. Clean slate. The Lobos three wins have come over teams ranked 189th, 157th, 107th. So let’s pump the breaks here on New Mexico being a really good football team. SJSU was a preaseason threat to win this conference, they haven’t fallen apart, lay the 2.5.
19
3
CIN -1.5-110
ISU
ISU Team Abbreviation@CIN Team Abbreviation
CIN
1.5u
10/04 4:00 PM
It’s October, time for Becht to turn into a 🎃
16
8
Where is the respect for the Falcons’ offense? What more do you want to see? 102 points in the last three weeks! 2nd in offensive success rate, per usual 2nd in HAVOC avoidance, and when this offense is humming they get explosive pass plays. Well they’re up to third in explosiveness. Liam Szarka can sling it and Cade Harris is the big play man, 16 receptions, 439 yards, that’s 27.4 yards per reception. Oh and by the way, this defense stinks, so Navy will be able to score and score quickly. Four TD drives for Hawaii with 6 plays or fewer. Same for Boise, four TD drives with 5 plays or less. This Navy defense has been leaky when facing the pass. 108th in explosiveness allowed, 109 in PPA. This matches the preseason fears with their secondary. And keep in mind they drew VMI, Rice, Tulsa and UAB so far. Only UAB has a living breathing passing game. Rice doesn’t pass. VMI is a lousy FCS team. And Tulsa prefers to run but when they do pass, it’s rarely successful. So I think the reality is that the Midshipmen could be even worse against the pass than their numbers reveal. This total, like many Service Academy odds, are predicated on history. In the last seven years in this series, there have been six games in which one side was held to 10 points or less. But this year is different. Both offenses can really play. Both defenses have major, major question marks. And they both have the kind of explosivness to avoid the dreaded 15 play, 72 yard, drive that ends in a FG and eats up 10 minutes of gameplay.
38
7
TEX -6.5-110
TEX
TEX Team Abbreviation@FLA Team Abbreviation
FLA
3u
10/04 7:30 PM
The anti-Arch sentiment has hit its peak. He doesn’t need to be anything more than a game manager with 50+ rushing yards to cover this number.
29
6
Under 54.5-105
EMU
EMU Team Abbreviation@BUFF Team Abbreviation
BUFF
1.75u
10/04 7:30 PM
Ta’Quan Roberson is out of his boot, but this Buffalo offense is still pretty flat even with him at full strength. He just isnt consistent through the air and his playcaller, Dave Patenaude, has the running game to beat EMU. What’s weird about Roberson is his aDOT is really high 11.6 (10th nationally), but his yards per attempt is just 7.0. That’s because he can’t connect downfield. Passes 10 to 19 yards downfield (2-for-9), 20+ yards downfield (9-for-24). That’s a completion percentage of 33% when he pushes it beyond ten yards. I still like this Buffalo defense, just as I did in the preseason. They’re solid across the board, but they have a great pass rush. They’ve gotten home 17 times this year (4th most). And Eastern Michigan has been dreadful in passing down situations, 100th in success rate there. THe last game against CMU for EMU, I think will be closer to what we see on Saturday. It was 24-13 CMU, but after the first 20 minutes, EMU held them to 3 points for the rest of the game. I see them mucking this one up as well.
25
3
Over 62.5-115
BOISE
BOISE Team Abbreviation@ND Team Abbreviation
ND
2.2u
10/04 7:30 PM
Mike Denbrock knows how to adjust his offense to his quarterback but I’m not sure the market has adjusted to what the Irish are this year as opposed to last year when Riley Leonard was piloting the ND attack. Just look at the playcalling measurables Notre Dame was 88th in passing play rate in 2024, up to 85th this year. No difference right? It’s all in the aDOT and yards per attempt difference. Leonard 7.5 aDOT, 7.1 ypa. That’s 90th and 70th among qualifying QBs. CJ Carr’s aDOT 9.4, 10.1 yards per attempts. That’s 34th and 4th nationally. That’s really good when you’re backing an over against a defense that is 134th in explosives allowed. Boise has been shredded by the big play on the ground and through the air. Carr, Love and Price will land haymakers. On the other side of things, Notre Dame’s defense has fallen off a cliff with Chris Ash as the new DC. From the elite ranks, to a advanced stat sheet bledding red. 135th in HAVOC, outside the top 100 in success rate allowed both on the ground and through the air. Boise isn’t what they were with Jeanty, but the running back by committee thing is cooking, and I know one thing about Maddux Madsen, he’s matured as a passer when he has time to work. Whether firing from a clean pocket or given time to improvise, he makes big plays this fall. In a clean pocket or no pressure, 9 big time throws to 4 turnover worthy plays. And he’s coming off the best game of his career last week against App State. Boise as an underdog since 2023, 5-2 to the over. They play loose, they let it fly and they will in South Bend as a big dog.
27
7
Futures
Utah Utes+1800
2025 NCAAF Big 12 Conference - To Win
1u
Via Bet365
11
7
Southern Miss Golden Eagles+2500
2025 NCAAF Sun Belt Conference - To Win
1u
10
5
UTSA Roadrunners+650
2025 NCAAF American Athletic Conference - To Win
1.75u
13
4
Rice Owls o3.5-155
2025 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
3u
9
4
Southern Miss Golden Eagles o4.5-160
2025 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
3u
9
4
James Madison Dukes+300
2025 NCAAF Sun Belt Conference - To Win
1u
4
3
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns+700
2025 NCAAF Sun Belt Conference - To Win
0.5u
9
3
Hawai'i Warriors o5.5-167
2025 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
3u
3
2
UAB Blazers u4.5-135
2025 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
3u
10
3
Navy Midshipmen u8.5+120
2025 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
9
3
North Texas Mean Green+1700
2025 NCAAF American Conference - To Win
0.3u
BetMGM
4
1
Houston Cougars o6.5+120
2025 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
3u
12
5
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days5-9-036%
-2.58u
Last 30 Days18-32-036%
-13.48u
All Time1387-1447-3748%
-25.18u
Top Leagues
NHL1-1-050%
4.51u
MLB2-2-140%
1.80u
NFL1-2-033%
-1.10u
NBA2-2-050%
-1.68u
NCAAF541-555-849%
-8.24u
NCAAB839-882-2848%
-21.72u

Summary

Mike Calabrese is a sports betting analyst and on-air analyst at the Action Network, focusing on college sports, including college football, college basketball, and college baseball.

Mike is a host on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. In the fall, he covers the Group of Five during football season, including as part of the Group of Five Deep Dive with co-host Mike Ianniello

During basketball season, he covers the sports from coast-to-coast through the end of the NCAA Tournament, and in the spring and summer he helps supplement Action’s coverage of college baseball and the College World Series.

Experience

Mike began writing at Action Network in 2019, covering mid-majors on the college hardwood. His betting advice centered around situational spots, highlighting travel, rest, and altitude disparities.

He now covers the college sports beat year-round, touching football, basketball, and baseball in written, podcast, and video formats.

Mike started writing professionally in 2007 and in 2011 started contributing to USA Today’s Media Network. Prior to joining Action, he produced content for theScore, MSN, Fox Sports, Saturday Down South, OLBG in London, Yardbarker, and NumberFire.

Education

Mike graduated from Loyola College in Maryland, earning a BA with a double major in writing and political science.

Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
At that point in my career, the largest single game bet I ever placed was Alabama -1.5 against LSU in 2012 BCS National Championship Game. LSU crossed the 50-yard line just once in the entire game, a 21-0 Alabama victory.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Iona +4.5 vs. BYU in 2012 NCAA Tournament play-in game. Iona hit an in-game ATS win expectancy of 99.9% before a 17-point second led to a 78-72 loss.
Specialties
  • College Football
  • College Basketball