Let’s unpack the NC State-Virginia matchup first. The Wahoos finished 11-3 last season, but I’m here to tell you they were a slightly above-average team masquerading as a CFP contender. They won three games in overtime and four games in total by six points or less. Of their 11 wins, four came against teams that finished 99th or lower in the final SP+ rankings, and another came over FCS William & Mary. When they traveled to Raleigh to take on this same Wolfpack team, they squandered their red zone opportunities -- two touchdowns in five trips -- and fell 35-31. Now the Cavaliers are faced with an offensive rebuild. They lost their starting quarterback, top two rushers, top three wide receivers, and their All-ACC first-team center. While everything clicked last season, Tony Elliott and his staff are counting on a lot of new pieces gelling in short order, and that starts with Beau Pribula at quarterback. The dual threat is now on his third school in as many years, and while he’s a dynamic runner, he struggles to protect the football. Turnover margin was a big ingredient in Virginia’s secret sauce last season, and I’m skeptical that Pribula can avoid turnover-worthy plays and sacks after what he put on tape last year at Mizzou (12 TWPs, 25 sacks in 10 games). As for NC State, the Wolfpack return a difference-maker at quarterback in junior CJ Bailey. The six-foot-six pocket passer finished 12th nationally in QBR (79.4) and orchestrated an upset of No. 8-ranked Georgia Tech. Dave Doeren, now in his 14th year at NC State, procured Bailey some new weapons when he plucked JoJo Trader and Victor Snow from the portal. Trader is the former blue chipper looking to break out, and Snow arrives as a proven commodity with 19 career touchdowns at Buffalo. Speaking of Doeren, he’s owned Virginia, sporting a perfect 4-0 mark straight up against the Cavaliers. I think he makes it five straight while exposing Virginia as nothing more than an also-ran in the ACC this season. The second leg of this Week 0 parlay kicks off at 10 p.m. Eastern out in Sin City. UNLV, much like Virginia, is trying to validate a double-digit win season by hitting the ground running. But just like UVA, UNLV’s QB1 replacement gives me pause. Jackson Arnold was an abject failure at Auburn. He threw two touchdowns in SEC play while taking 23 sacks. That was also his problem at Oklahoma; he simply doesn’t process fast enough to avoid sacks. And in this game, he’s facing a Lance Guidry defense. In Guidry’s last two stops as a defensive coordinator (Marshall, Miami FL), his defenses’ average national finish in sack rate was 17th. He finds ways to heat up opposing passers, and he has the best G6 transfer portal haul along the defensive line to make it happen. J'Mond Tapp (12 TFLs in ‘25) will likely introduce himself to Arnold before the end of the first drive. Offensively, Kevin Decker is calling the shots, and to put it lightly, it’s an inspired hire by Charles Huff. The former ODU offensive coordinator turned the Monarchs into a terrifying rushing machine (7th, 238 ypg). He did this by leaning on a running quarterback, and he has two quality options to choose from here at Memphis. Air Noland was at one time a top ten high school quarterback recruit, and Marcus Stokes dominated the D-II scene last season. Stokes’ 10 rushing touchdowns indicate that he may be the perfect fit in Decker’s scheme. UNLV’s defense last year left a lot to be desired (SP+ 89th), and now they’re facing a near rebuild (104th in returning production). Paul Guenther struggled to contain running quarterbacks last fall as UNLV’s DC, and that won’t change in this opener. Whether it’s Noland or Stokes, Memphis will move the football and score the Week 0 upset.

I agree with 🦆’s accessment @Joshua_Nunn Here’s his write-up: Cincinnati found itself cruising to a 7-1 start in 2025 behind the arm of Brendan Sorsby, who posted a 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that stretch. The rubber met the road in the last half of the schedule, however, and Cincinnati didn't win another game after Oct. 25. The defense couldn't make stops late in the season, and the front seven was shredded on the ground, allowing 240 or more rushing yards to four of its last five opponents. Sorsby departed for Texas Tech, leaving the Bearcats to turn to either Ivy League transfer Liam O’Brien or journeyman JC French IV, who comes over from Georgia Southern. Needless to say, a downgrade is expected. The running back room is completely bare, with five of the top six ball-carriers gone, as is the receiver room, which saw its top five pass-catchers from last year vacate the premises. Finding explosiveness out of the backs and receivers is going to be crucial for Cincinnati, particularly if French earns the starting quarterback role. He held onto the rock way too long last year and took 30 sacks but also bailed from the pocket and gave up on the pass progression much earlier than necessary on multiple occasions while at Georgia Southern. The offensive line looks to be in decent shape, although Cincinnati will be replacing its starting center and right tackle. With a run game sure to take a step back and a stop-gap quarterback who has a propensity to panic and bail from the pocket, it's safe to assume the sack numbers will increase significantly. The defense was such a liability game after game, but the problems were masked by the offense winning games, so nobody talked about it. The front gave up nearly 4.5 yards per carry last season, and pass coverage appeared to be optional at times in the secondary. Cincinnati gave up 20 touchdown passes, compared to just two total team interceptions. Four of the top defensive backs are gone, so the Bearcats will have to rely on MAC transfers to fill the void. Leading sack man Jake Golday is also gone. The defensive line loses nine of the top 12 contributors, as this unit returns a combined 22 tackles from last season. The special teams unit returns nearly intact, but Cincinnati will have to replace a very reliable kicker in Stephen Rusnak, who made 13-of-17 field goals from last season. The schedule features the home opener against Boston College, followed by FCS Western Carolina and a neutral-site home game against in-state foe Miami (OH) in an NFL stadium. Cincinnati draws perhaps the toughest Big 12 schedule this season, with five road games and matchups against six of the projected top seven teams in Big 12 league play. The Bearcats are likely going to be 'dogs in at least seven conference games this season, including: at Arizona, Oct. 3rd vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 24th vs. Utah, Oct. 31st at Houston, Nov. 7th at Iowa State, Nov. 14th at BYU, Nov. 28th The end of the schedule is brutal, and there's a chance the season goes sideways well before a winnable trip to Ames and Colorado coming to town. There's too much lost production on both sides of the ball and not enough playmakers to replace the explosiveness this offense had last season. I don't have Cincinnati making a bowl game this season.

Sellers is a polarizing player, full stop. He flashed true greatness in 2024, upsetting Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl, tossing five touchdowns against nationally ranked Mizzou and accouting for 350 total yards in an upset of No. 10 Texas A&M. But 2025 was a mess for Sellers and the Gamecocks, dragging his career record as a starter down to 12-12. He was under fire every time he took a snap, suffering 42 sacks. That constant pressure tanked his passing statistics across the board and his dynamic rushing abilities nearly vanished. He was beat to a pulp and regressed as a result. But the good news is that help is on the way. South Carolina hired Kendall Briles to be Sellers’ new offensive coordinator and playcaller. Briles has created statistical monsters everywhere he’s been. At Baylor, a combination of Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham set the world on fire (49 Total TDs in 2015). At Houston, Briles unleashed D’Eriq King on the college football world. King exploded for 50 total touchdowns. Briles was on the bleeding edge of RPO exploration, and King created a pick-your-poison dynamic. An RPO-heavy attack also mitigates offensive line issues, which is great news for a USC offensive line that finished 102nd in pass blocking and 120th in run blocking per PFF. Briles has also elevated a similar player in the SEC four years ago. Across two seasons as Briles’ QB1, K.J. Jefferson completed 68% of his passes, while accounting for 60 total touchdowns. Toss in Briles’ recent work with Josh Hoover at TCU and it’s easy to envision 40 total touchdowns and a boatload of yards for Sellers in this offensive system. The schedule presents stat-padding opportunities early (Kent State, Towson, Miss State) and five to seven ranked opponents offering ample “Heisman Moment” opportunities. Shane Beamer and his staff brought in eight offensive linemen through the portal and retained Nyck Harbor at wide receiver. If some of their new faces in the trenches pop and Harbor makes the expected leap to All-SEC production levels, Sellers will generate the stats to keep him in the Heisman race all season long. The difference between contending and winning it will come down to the upsets South Carolina generates, but at 40:1 this is an excellent value as a centerpiece to a Heisman portfolio.

Charles Huff has done more with less since he left Nick Saban’s staff to branch out on his own as a head coach. At Marshall, he found a way to keep the Thundering Herd on the national radar, first by upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend in 2022 and then by winning the Sun Belt in 2024. After Marshall refused to show him the money, he bolted for Southern Miss and exceeded expectations once again. The Golden Eagles were coming off a 1-11 campaign, winless in SBC play, when Huff arrived in Hattiesburg. In short order, he turned them into a contender and a bowl team. Well, the days of doing more with less for Huff are over now that he has FedEx money to play with. The Tigers have the largest NIL war chest in the Group of Six thanks to a $25 million infusion from FedEx, which is based in Memphis. Between the NIL payroll and the university’s commitment to the football program, Huff has a deep roster and an elite coaching staff. He hired a pair of fantastic coordinators in Kevin Decker and Lance Guidry. Decker built his offense around Colton Joseph at Old Dominion, and that led to the program’s first 10-win season in the Sun Belt. CoJo ran for over 1,000 yards and punched in 13 rushing touchdowns. This fall, Decker will get to choose between a former four-star recruit (Air Noland) and a dual-threat star from D-II West Florida (Marcus Stokes). Given Decker’s track record, I’m betting on one of those quarterbacks making waves in the American this fall. As for defense, Lance Guidry reunites with Huff after serving as his defensive architect at Marshall. Guidry’s defenses created relentless pressure, evidenced by the 78 sacks he coaxed out of his two defenses at Marshall. J'Mond Tapp is firmly on the NFL’s radar as a terror off the edge and a shoo-in to record double-digit sacks under Guidry’s tutelage. The former Broyles Award nominee has more talent to work with than he did at Marshall, so a top 40 finish on that side of the ball is likely. Schedule-wise, we’ll know if this bet has legs by mid-September. Memphis’ frontloaded schedule sees them travel to UNLV and Boise State in the first three weeks. The good news is that UNLV is breaking in Jackson Arnold, a quarterback who has wilted under pressure in his career. The journeyman passer has been sacked 67 times in just 18 career starts. If they pass that test in the desert, Boise State provides a spotlight opportunity for the Tigers. Yes, Boise is a bear on the Smurf Turf (130-16 at home since 2003), but the offense blew a tire down the stretch, falling to score more than ten points in three of their last six to end last season. And situationally, the Broncos will be coming off of a road trip to Oregon, so there’s a good chance they’re banged up. After that challenging start, Memphis has a fortuitous American schedule that projects them as a favorite in eight games and a short dog (field goal or less) in two. Now is the time to buy Memphis stock before the secret is out.

To state the obvious, college football is not a popularity contest. Reviled coaches have reached the mountain top of the sport, scandal and bad press be damned. Which brings us to the most hated man in college football — or at least in the state of Mississippi. There’s burning bridges, and then there’s what Lane Kiffin did at Ole Miss last year. Becoming the first coach to abandon a team during a College Football Playoff run, Kiffin napalmed his relationships at Ole Miss, proving both heartless and ruthless in equal proportion. The maelstrom that followed Kiffin from Oxford to Baton Rouge has made it difficult for oddsmakers and pundits to agree upon LSU’s ceiling. No team has a wider gap from best odds to worst in the national championship futures market (15:1 to 25:1). An analyst might call that kind of disparity “noise,” but what I call it is an opportunity. The Portal King landed the top transfer class by a country mile. As reported by Brett Ciancia, LSU reeled in 29% more blue-chip recruits than the second-best class this cycle. And this historic class starts with the three most important positions in the sport -- quarterback, offensive tackle and edge rusher. They secured the top recruit at all three spots. Sam Leavitt considered offers from Kentucky, Miami (FL) and Tennessee before signing with the Tigers. When healthy, Leavitt is a perfect fit for Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr.’s offensive system. Assuming he returns from Lisfranc surgery at 100%, Leavitt has the athleticism to create off-script and the experience as a high-end starter to consistently make the right choices while operating within an RPO-heavy scheme. At Arizona State, he led the Sun Devils to the CFP, leaning on Cam Skattebo and Jordan Tyson along the way. This season, he has the top running back in the class of 2025 (Harlem Barry) to defer to in the read game and an embarrassment of riches in the pass-catching department. Kiffin nabbed complementary pieces in the portal like the shifty All-Big 12 Jayce Brown and the big-bodied Jackson Harris from Hawai’i, just to name a few. And the biggest mismatch in the entire SEC, tight end Trey’Dez Green (6’7”), is in line for a massive target upgrade over last season’s modest total. Blocking for Leavitt will be preseason All-SEC left tackle Jordan Seaton, Maryland import Aliou Bah (24 starts, 0 sacks allowed) at right guard, and a two-deep littered with talent and previous starting experience. All the pieces are in place for this offense to hit the ground running. Defensively, there are game-breakers at all three levels and an elite playcaller pulling the strings. Kiffin’s offseason recruiting coups extended to his coaching staff and none was more important than the retention of Blake Baker. He’ll have Princewill Umanmielen wreaking havoc on the edge, Whit Weeks and Davhon Keys cleaning things up at linebacker, and DJ Pickett and PJ Woodland ready to take on the DBU mantle this fall. Just like the offense, the defense’s talent is undeniable. From a personnel perspective, there are no appreciable weaknesses in this unit, but they will need to improve in the red zone (92nd in TD%) and HAVOC (72nd). According to ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, LSU is staring down the barrel of a gun, with the 11th-most difficult slate awaiting the Tigers. But the good news is that their slate breaks up neatly into three stanzas. They host Clemson in the opener, before back-to-back showdowns with Ole Miss and Texas A&M in late September. Then they’ll likely be favored by double digits in three straight games. November brings three straight against Alabama, Texas and Tennessee. But even with five to six ranked opponents on the docket, LSU is projected to be favored in 11 games. This price is too good to pass up for a team that will be granted not one but two mulligans. At 10-2, with a powerful Kiffin offense clicking in December, 25:1 to win it all will feel like an early Christmas present in your stocking.

Fly. Fight. Win. 🔵⚡️⚪️